It’s the first week of the NFL season! It’s always nice to watch some football games on Sunday when fall is in the air. The primary election has been certified and the field is now set for the November general election. There were multiple candidate withdrawals that changed the dynamics of several legislative races. A late withdrawal from the U.S. House race has resulted in Democrat Eric Hafner, who is currently incarcerated, being moved up to the top-four. The Alaska Democratic Party is now trying to prevent him from appearing on the ballot. Governor Mike Dunleavy (R – Alaska) signed some bills into law and vetoed others. And he also made a high profile endorsement of a Republican who is challenging an incumbent Republican senator.   

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The field is set for the general election. These races will decide who controls the House and Senate next year

The following is an excerpt from this week’s edition of the Alaska Political Report. You can click here for more information about the Political Report. A subscription is $1,299/year per organization. Discounted pricing is available for non-profits and government entities. Our coverage of the budget starts with the governor’s proposed budget, and we track everything in detail through the entire process. If you have any questions or would like to subscribe, please email jeff@akpoliticalreport.com.

Following the low turnout August primary, the field is now set for the November general election. Of the 50 legislative races – all 40 House seats and 10 of 20 Senate seats – eleven are incumbents running unopposed. These include two senators and nine representatives. A series of post-primary withdrawals have changed the dynamics of several legislative races.

The Senate, currently controlled by a 17-member bi-partisan super majority, will almost certainly remain under bi-partisan control next year, though it will likely be fewer members. The current 3-member Republican minority is two members short of being a recognized minority, resulting in no guaranteed seats on standing committees. Depending on the outcome of four Senate races, the Republicans could have as few as four or as many as seven members in a minority.

The House is a different story. The current 23-member majority is comprised of 19 Republicans and the four members of the Bush Caucus – two of whom will likely not be returning to Juneau next year. The Republicans are sure to have the 21 members required to form a majority next year, and possibly even 24 if they run the table. But they have had those kind of numbers in the past and failed to form a Republican majority. If the Republicans fail to win all the key House races, they could lose power next year.

Kodiak Republican Rep. Louise Stutes is a member of the current House minority and served as Speaker of the House in the prior bi-partisan House majority coalition. Former Republican Rep. Chuck Kopp is poised to defeat Anchorage Republican Rep. Craig Johnson in November (Kopp finished more than 20 points ahead of Johnson in the primary). Kopp served as rules chair in a previous bi-partisan coalition. Stutes and Kopp are not liked by Republicans and will likely join a bi-partisan coalition.

Wasilla Republican Rep. David Eastman finished more than 23 points ahead of his Republican opponent, Jubilee Underwood, in the primary. Eastman has long been a problem for House Republicans, who cannot rely on him as a reliable member of their majority. If Underwood can pull off a miracle, it would be a pick up for Republicans. But that is not likely to happen.

These are the races that will determine how the House and Senate organize next year.

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Chaos in the U.S. House Race 

After the withdrawal of Republican Matthew Salisbury from the U.S. House race, Democrat Eric Hafner was moved up into the top-four for the general election. Salisbury finished fourth in the primary. When Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom (R – Alaska) withdrew, fifth place primary finisher Alaska Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe was moved up. When Salisbury withdrew, sixth place primary finisher Hefner was moved up. I know, it’s kind of convoluted. 

In 2023, Hafner was sentenced to 20 years in prison for “making threatening telephone and email communications to New Jersey state officials, judges, law enforcement officers, and attorneys, and phoning in false bomb threats to local and state government offices, a police department, two law firms and a commercial establishment. You can read the Department of Justice press release here. 

The guy is beyond Loose Unit. He’s currently locked up in New York. He’s never set foot in Alaska, but that does not prevent him from running. Anyone who meets the constitutional requirements can run, they just need to be a resident of the state when they take office. KRBD actually interviewed the guy on the phone! You can listen to that here.  

But it gets a lot more interesting. The Alaska Democratic Party is now suing to get him off the ballot. It’s important to note that if Hafner were a Republican, the Democrats would be thrilled to have him on the ballot. But because he is a Democrat, he poses a potential threat to their anointed one, Representative Mary Peltola (D – Alaska). If Hafner even got a few percent of the vote from people who did not rank Peltola second, she could lose to Republican Nick Begich by a small margin. 

The Democrats are arguing that Hafner should be taken off the ballot because even if he won, there is no way he could leave prison to become an Alaska resident. But the obvious legal response is he could theoretically be pardoned or released. The lawsuit is really stupid. But a judge will hear oral arguments tomorrow morning at 9 am at the Nesbett Courthouse in Anchorage. There is a real quick timeline here as ballots need to be tested and printed relatively soon for overseas absentee ballots. 

Other Happenings 

Governor Dunleavy signed four bills into law this week in Fairbanks. Here is a summary of the bills. 

More notably, Dunleavy vetoed two bills this week. First, he vetoed Senate Bill 127. This was a good bill that fixed a problem. The Dunleavy administration has refused to enforce the 10% rental tax for Turo users, even though they are required to pay it. The bill lowered the rate to 8% for Turo users, and would have forgiven back taxes. It makes no sense why he vetoed the bill. The Legislature should go into a special session to take up a veto override.  

The other bill Dunleavy vetoed was House Bill 17. This bill would have required insurance companies to provide birth control for up to 12 months at a time. This veto pissed off a lot of people. There are women who live in remote Alaska who have difficulty going to the doctor or getting a new prescription every 90 days. This bill seems like a no brainer to me. The Legislature should take up this veto override too.   

Governor Dunleavy endorsed Republican Jared Goecker over incumbent Senator Kelly Merrick (R – Eagle River). The audio in the video has been fixed! This is a pretty big endorsement in conservative Eagle River. Dunleavy must feel pretty good about it because if Merrick wins, he’s going to have a big enemy in the Senate. 

File this one in the super bizarre photo category. 

Representative Mike Cronk (R – Tok) held a packed fundraiser this week at the Pump House in Fairbanks. He’s running for the open Senate seat in Fairbanks against independent Savannah Fletcher.  

This Week’s Loose Unit

The Democrat felon Eric Hafner being moved up to the top-four in the U.S. House race, and the ensuing lawsuit from the Alaska Democratic Party, are both hyper loose. But someone else snagged this week’s designation. This week’s Loose Unit is once again Nick Moe. After a poor primary performance, Moe announced he was withdrawing from the open West Anchorage House race and endorsing his opponent, Democrat Carolyn Hall. 

That in and of itself is not that loose. But what happened next is maximum loose. Moe forgot (or maybe it was on purpose) to sign the withdrawal form. When he resubmitted the signed form, it was past the deadline! It doesn’t get much loose than that. Especially considering it’s a simple form. You can read this Landmine article for more information on what happened. Classic Loose Unit behavior. 

If you have a nomination for this week’s Loose Unit, or if you have any political news, stories or gossip (or any old pics of politicians or public officials) please email me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com.