The November general election is just over one week away! Early voting started this Monday, and the demand has been high. More than 25,600 Alaskans voted in the first five days of early voting. And more than 20,500 absentee ballots have been returned so far. Candidates all over the state are working hard in the final push to get out the vote. And Governor Mike Dunleavy (R – Alaska) and Transportation officials held a press conference at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport this week to announce five new cargo carriers. 

A friendly message and reminder to all our readers. The Landmine is made possible by myself and a team of awesome Alaskans. I have been covering the legislative session in Juneau for the last six years. We are again providing in-depth coverage for both the primary and general elections. If you enjoy the content we provide, please consider making a one time or recurring monthly donation. You can click here to donate. We have a system that makes it super easy. We would really appreciate it. And thanks to everyone who has been supportive.

A reminder that the Landmine is bringing Election Central back! Join us on Tuesday, November 5 at the Egan Center for what is sure to be a great party. Here is a new video promo we released today. 

Early Voting off to a Strong Start

Early voting in Alaska began on Monday (10/21/2024). Fairbanks did not open on Monday due to a winter storm. And Barrow did not open Monday because the North Slope Borough chose to celebrate Indigenous Peoples’ Day a week late.  

Reports immediately began coming in from locations in Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley about wait times that in some cases were two hours. Wait times all week have consistently been thirty minutes or more. I waited an hour to early vote at the Gambell location on Friday afternoon. When I arrived the line was just out the door. When I left it was to the end of the building. 

Here are the early and absentee numbers through Friday (10/25/2024). 

Republicans are outpacing Democrats, but there are also a lot more registered Republicans than Democrats in Alaska – 146,161 to 75,066. But so far, Republicans are early and absentee voting at a rate higher than their statewide registered percentage of 23.9%. Democrats are too, but at a lower rate. For Democrats, their statewide registered percentage is 12.3%.

Nearly half the early vote so far (45.9%) is from registered Undeclared and Nonpartisan voters. It’s hard to gauge but generally Undeclared voters tend to be more conservative and Nonpartisan voters tend to be more liberal. 

The big question is what kind of voters are early voting. Are they low propensity voters who are coming out to vote in the presidential election? Or are they high propensity voters who usually vote on election day but are choosing to early vote instead? The answer to those questions would require some serious modeling, but my gut tells me it’s a combination. Donald Trump and Republicans are encouraging their voters to vote early this time. That was not the case in 2020. 

Here are the early and absentee numbers for the 2020 and 2022 elections. Remember that 2020 was an anomaly due to Covid.  

In 2022, 37,559 Alaskans early voted. In 2020 it was 53,229. The early voting numbers so far, 25,672, are only through Friday, which means ten days of early voting numbers remain. So far, 5,000 people a day have been early voting. Unless those numbers drastically decline, Alaska is on track for a record early vote turnout. 

Other Happenings 

Governor Dunleavy, Transportation Commissioner Ryan Anderson, and other Transportation officials held a press conference this week at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport to announce five new cargo carriers. This Alaska Public Media article goes into more detail. 

Dunleavy soon headed out of Alaska to New York. He was spotted at the Trump rally today at Madison Square Garden with former Governor Sarah Palin. 

If you’ve been checking your mail, you have seen a ton of political mailers. Here is a clever one from  Republican South Anchorage House candidate Lucy Bauer. If you have any funny or loose mailers, please send them to us for a complication article we are working on. You can send on Facebook or Twitter messenger or email me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com.  

The final round of campaign finance reports for legislative candidates, the 7-day reports, are due on Tuesday (10/29/2024). They will show how much candidates have spent and raised in their final push before the election. Candidates are also required to report all contributions in excess of $250 in the nine days before an election. 

The results of this Valley Senate race will be interesting. Republican Rob Yundt did not campaign much before the primary but still managed to get a third of the vote. He’s been campaigning hard since the primary. Senator David Wilson (R – Wasilla) has also been campaigning hard. Wilson got 41.4% in the primary. But Republican Stephen Wright, who has barely campaigned, got 26%. Combined, Yundt and Wright got 58.6% of the primary vote. If those numbers generally hold, the winner will be decided by Wright’s second choice votes. 

This Week’s Loose Unit 

This week’s designee is a tie between a lot of people. This week’s Loose Unit is all the people who have called, messaged, and texted me since I posted that I voted for Donald Trump on Friday. 

It’s pretty wild how many friends and acquaintances have contacted me demanding I explain why I voted for Trump. I am happy to talk with anyone about politics, but most of these people don’t want to talk. They want to scold, insult, or castigate. 

I can’t think of a scenario where I would contact someone about who they voted and demand they explain their vote. The whole thing is so loose. We live in a free country where people should be able to vote for who they choose and not be subjected to shaming or demands that they explain their vote. For all those who call Trump a fascist, many of them seem to want to live in a country where their political opponents are silenced or intimidated. That is maximum loose behavior. 

If you have a nomination for this week’s Loose Unit, or if you have any political news, stories or gossip (or any old pics of politicians or public officials) please email me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com.