The November general election is just two days away! I think it’s safe to say we are all looking forward to the non-stop TV ads, radio ads, and political mailers coming to an end. Alaskans have been early and absentee voting in record numbers, with nearly 100,000 early and absentee votes cast through Friday (11/1/2024). Those numbers are sure to go up as the demand for early voting has remained high. And the last Alaska Public Offices Commission (APOC) campaign finance reports before the election for legislative candidates came out this week. 

A friendly message and reminder to all our readers. The Landmine is made possible by myself and a team of awesome Alaskans. I have been covering the legislative session in Juneau for the last six years and will be headed back in January. We have been providing in-depth coverage for both the primary and general elections. If you enjoy the content we provide, please consider making a one time or recurring monthly donation. You can click here to donate. We have a system that makes it super easy. We would really appreciate it. And thanks to everyone who has been supportive.

A reminder that the Landmine is bringing Election Central back! Join us on Tuesday night at the Egan Center for what is sure to be a great party. Thanks to all of our great sponsors for making this possible! Here is a new video promo we released today. 

Early and Absentee Voting 

Alaskans have been early voting in record numbers since it started on October 21. I have been providing daily updates from the reports the Division of Elections have been sending out. They send out a daily report for early vote totals. Absentee reports come out twice a week. Below are the early and absentee numbers, as well as the combined totals through Friday, November 1. Note that 75,725 absentee ballots have been requested. 

57,224 early votes through 11/1:

• 20,158 Republican (35.2%)
• 17,406 Undeclared (30.4%)
• 9,609 Nonpartisan (16.8%)
• 8,041 Democrat (14.1%)
• 1,296 AIP
• 394 Libertarian
• 320 all others

38,191 absentee ballots returned by 11/1:

• 11,689 Republican (30.6%)
• 10,235 Undeclared (26.8%)
• 6,618 Nonpartisan (17.3%)
• 8,250 Democrat (21.6%)
• 1,024 AIP
• 179 Libertarian
• 196 all others

95,415 combined early and absentee votes:

• 31,847 Republican (33.4%)
• 27,641 Undeclared (29%)
• 16,227 Nonpartisan (17%)
• 16,291 Democrat (17.1%)
• 2,320 AIP
• 573 Libertarian
• 516 all others

As you can see, Republicans are early and absentee voting more than Democrats. Democrats are absentee voting more than they are early voting and Republicans are early voting more than they are absentee voting. But what is interesting is the combined totals compared to the percentages of registered Republicans and Democrats in the state.

Republicans make up just under 24% of registered voters, but so far their total of all early and absentee votes is 33.4% – nearly ten points higher than their statewide numbers. 

Democrats make up just over 12% of registered voters, but so far their total of all early and absentee votes is 17.1% – just under five points higher than their statewide numbers. 

It’s hard to interpret exactly what these numbers mean because it could mean that a lot of Republicans who normally vote on election day are early or absentee voting instead. Or it could mean that a lot of low propensity voters – voters who don’t vote a lot – are coming out to vote early.

One thing is clear, we are going to see record early voting this year. And Republicans are definitely coming out to early and absentee vote more than they did in 2020. My gut tells me this is good for Republican Nick Begich and bad for Representative Mary Peltola (D – Alaska). While that will be a closer race than the Donald Trump/Kamala Harris race in Alaska, with more Republicans in the state and more of them likely going to vote this year, the chances for Begich unseating Peltola are higher this year than in a non-presidential election year.  

Legislative candidates pull in more than $820,000 one week before general election

The following is an excerpt from this week’s special edition of the Alaska Political Report. You can click here for more information about the Political Report. A subscription is $1,299/year per organization. Discounted pricing is available for non-profits and government entities. Our coverage of the budget starts with the governor’s proposed budget, and we track everything in detail through the entire process. If you have any questions or would like to subscribe, please email jeff@akpoliticalreport.com.

More than 100 candidates running for 50 legislative seats recently filed their 7-day campaign finance reports, which were due on Oct. 29. These reports cover the period from Oct. 5 – Oct. 26. These come after the 30-day reports for the general election, which were due Oct. 7.

Besides the 24-hour reports (candidates are required to report all donations in excess of $250 within 24 hours during the nine days before an election ) the 7-day reports are the last to come out before the election. The final reports are not due until Feb. 18, 2025. 

Total income from legislative candidates for this reporting period is more than $820,000. Candidates collectively reported more than $2 million beginning cash on hand – money from the previous reporting period. Candidates collectively spent more than $1.38 million on campaign expenses. And after debts, candidates collectively report $1.26 million cash on hand. 

Total campaign income to date for this election cycle for all legislative candidates is $5.3 million. 

Of the top 20 biggest fundraisers, only six are incumbents. The largest fundraiser was Anchorage Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick, who reported more than $50,000 in income. The largest non-incumbent fundraiser was Republican Mia Costello, who reported just under $35,000 in income. 

Below is a summary of the reports for the candidates in each race. Note that since a Ninth Circuit ruling in 2021 struck down Alaska’s $500 per year individual-to-candidate contribution limit, and a later APOC order in 2022, individual-to-candidate contributions are unlimited in Alaska. They will remain unlimited unless the Legislature passes a bill with new limits that adhere to the court ruling or a ballot initiative reimposing limits is passed. 

If you would like to see the complete breakdown for each legislative candidate, consider subscribing to the Alaska Political Report. Email jeff@akpoliticalreport.com for a copy of the latest special report. 

Races to Watch

In addition to the presidential and U.S. House race – both races to watch – there are 50 legislative races this year (all 40 House seats and 10/20 Senate seats). Eleven incumbents are running unopposed, and many others are in races with non-serious opponents. Here are the legislative races to watch on Tuesday night that could have an impact on Senate and House organization:

Senate District D

Senator Jesse Bjorkman (R – Nikiski) vs. Representative Ben Carpenter (R – Nikiski). “Democrat” Tina Wegener is also on the ballot, who could prove to hurt Bjorkman. 

Senate District L

Senator Kelly Merrick (R – Eagle River) vs. Republican Jared Goecker. “Democrat” Lee Hammermeister is also on the ballot, who could prove to hurt Merrick. 

Senate District N

Senator David Wilson (R – Wasilla) vs. Republican Rob Yundt vs. Republican Stephen Wright. This one will definitely go to the ranked choice tabulation. Based on the primary results, Wilson could be in trouble.

Senate District P

Senator Scott Kawasaki (D – Fairbanks) vs. Republican Leslie Hajdukovich. 

Senate District R

Open Senator Click Bishop (R – Fairbanks) seat

Representative Mike Cronk (R – Tok) vs. independent Savannah Fletcher. Alaska Independence Party candidate Bert Williams is also on the ballot. 

House District 1

Republican Jeremy Bynum vs. independent Grant Echohawk vs. independent Agnes Moran. 

House District 6

Representative Sarah Vance (R – Homer) vs. independent Brent Johnson. Republican Dawson Slaughter is also on the ballot. 

House District 8

Open Ben Carpenter seat

Republican Bill Elam vs. Republican John Hillyer.

House District 9

Open Representative Laddie Shaw (R – Anchorage) seat

Republican Lucy Bauer vs. independent Ky Holland.

House District 10

Representative Craig Johnson (R – Anchorage) vs. Republican Chuck Kopp.

House District 11

Representative Julie Coulombe (R – Anchorage) vs. independent Walter Featherly.

House District 15

Republican Mia Costello vs. Democrat Denny Wells. “Democrat” Dustin Darden is also on the ballot. 

House District 18

Representative Cliff Groh (D – Anchorage) vs. Republican David Nelson.

House District 22

Representative Stanley Wright (R – Anchorage) vs. Democrat Ted Eischeid. 

House District 28

Open Representative Jesse Sumner (R – Wasilla) seat

Republican Steve Menard vs. Republican Elexie Moore vs. Republican Jessica Wright. This one will definitely go to the ranked choice tabulation.

House District 31

Representative Maxine Dibert (D – Fairbanks) vs. Republican Bart LeBon.

House District 36

Open Mike Cronk seat 

Republican Rebecca Schwanke vs. Democrat Branson Kowalski vs. Republican Pam Goode vs. Libertarian James Fields. This one will definitely go to the ranked choice tabulation.

House District 38

Representative CJ McCormick vs. Democrat Nellie Jimmie vs. Democrat Victoria Sosa vs. Veterans Party of Alaska candidate Willy Keppel. Based on the primary results, McCormick is unlikely to win re-election. 

House District 40

Representative Thomas Baker (I – Kotzebue) vs. Democrat Robyn Burke vs. Democrat Saima Chase. Based on the primary results, Baker is unlikely to win re-election. This one will definitely go to the ranked choice tabulation.

This Week’s Loose Unit 

This week was a no-brainer. This week’s Loose Unit is Education Commissioner Deena Bishop. Education is emphasized for a very specific reason. This is a real Alaska Beacon article from this week:

False citations show Alaska education official relied on generative AI, raising broader questions

There is not really much more else to say on this one. The Education commissioner relying on AI to form a policy where studies that don’t exist were cited is maximum loose behavior. 

If you have a nomination for this week’s Loose Unit, or if you have any political news, stories or gossip (or any old pics of politicians or public officials) please email me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com.