The August primary has come and gone, though four precincts and many absentee and early votes have yet to be counted. Turnout is currently at 16%, much lower than the 2022 primary. Democrats and progressives definitely turned out more than Republicans and conservatives. This is evidenced with Representative Mary Peltola (D – Alaska) getting just over 50% of the vote. Several Republicans in many races, including some high profile ones, have already withdrawn from the November general election. More are sure to drop before September 2 deadline. And several Democratic legislators spent the week in Chicago for the Democratic National Convention. 

A friendly message and reminder to all our readers. The Landmine is made possible by myself and a team of awesome Alaskans. I have been covering the legislative session in Juneau for the last six years. We are again providing in-depth coverage for both the primary and general elections. If you enjoy the content we provide, please consider making a one time or recurring monthly donation. You can click here to donate. We have a system that makes it super easy. We would really appreciate it. And thanks to everyone who has been supportive.

A big thanks to everyone who tuned into our live election coverage on Tuesday night. I am very excited to announce that for the general election we are brining back Election Central to the Egan Center! In addition to our live streamed coverage from the Egan, the event will be open to the public and campaigns. It’s gonna get loose! 

Primary Takeaways 

Four rural precincts from three House districts have yet to be incorporated into the results from the Division of Elections. Some of this is probably due to the storms this week in Western Alaska. But it’s still pretty wild that five days after the election not all of the 403 precincts are reported. Absentee votes and some early votes still need to be incorporated. These should raise turnout some, but not by much.

The Division of Elections should have the remainder of the early votes incorporated by Tuesday. All of the absentee votes should be incorporated by Friday – ten days after the election (absentee ballots can arrive in the mail up to ten days after the election). Results will be periodically updated during the week. Primary election results are scheduled to be certified on Monday, September 1. 

Here are some of the major takeaways from the primary. Keep in mind turnout will be much higher in November due to the presidential election. This will benefit conservative candidates in several races. 

• After a poor performance and pressure from Republicans, Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom withdrew from the November general election. This leaves Republican Nick Begich and Representative Mary Peltola in what will essentially be a head-to-head race. There will be two others on the ballot in November, but none of the remaining candidates broke 1%. Begich is ahead Dahlstrom by seven points, 26.9% to 19.9%. Mary Peltola is currently sitting at 50.4%. This is going to be a close and expensive race. 
• Senator Jesse Bjorkman (R – Nikiski) aka BJ is just 2.7% ahead of his main opponent, Representative Ben Carpenter (R – Nikiski), 43.9% to 41.2%. The Democrat in the race, Tina Wegener (who appears to be a Republican plant to harm BJ), is at 12.2%. With more conservative turnout in the general election, Bjorkman will need to convince voters who vote for Wegener first to rank him second. Alaska Independence Party candidate Andy Cizek is at 2.6%. In the general election, his second place votes should benefit Carpenter. This could be a close race.
• Senator James Kaufman (R – Anchorage) is down 2.6% to Democrat Janice Park, 48.4% to 45.8%. This is likely a result of down ballot help from Democrats and progressives who turned out for Peltola. Republican Harold Borbridge, who has barely campaigned, is at 5.7%. While Kaufman should be fine in November, these results are a wake up call.
• Senator Matt Claman (D – Anchorage) is in great shape with nearly 60% of the vote. Representative Tom McKay (R – Anchorage) is at 21% and Republican Liz Vazquez is at 19.4%. McKay announced he was withdrawing. Sources say he did because Vazquez refused to. Regardless, Claman is well poised to win re-election. 
• Senator Kelly Merrick (R – Eagle River) is in a virtual tie with her main opponent, Republican Jared Goecker. Merrick is at 33.8% while Goecker is at 33.1%. This is one of the two legislative races with more than four candidates. Former Republican Representative Sharon Jackson is in a distant fifth with 7.5%, meaning she will be eliminated. Former Republican Representative Ken McCarty is at 11.2%. Republicans who don’t like Merrick want McCarty to withdraw to consolidate the anti-Merrick vote. On Thursday, Goecker announced that Jackson was withdrawing and endorsing him. This means if McCarty does withdraw, Jackson would not be moved into his spot. The Democrat in the race, Lee Hammermeister, is at 14.2%. Jackson and McCarty combined earned more than 18% of the primary vote. If the bulk of those votes went to Goecker, he would be very close to 50%. If McCarty stays in, Goecker will need to appeal to McCarty voters to rank him second. Merrick will need to appeal to Republican voters in general, but Democratic voters in particular to rank her second after Hammermeister, if she hopes to win in November. This could be a close race. 
• Senator Scott Kawasaki (D – Fairbanks) is down by 2.1% to Republican Leslie Hajdukovich, 51% to 48.9%. This will likely be the most expensive legislative race. With higher turnout in November, and part of this district including the military base, Kawasaki is in trouble. 
• For the open seat Ketchikan Representative Dan Ortiz (I – Ketchikan) is not seeking re-election for, Republican Jeremy Bynum is in sitting pretty. He is at 49.9%. His two independent opponents, Grant Echohawk and Agnes Moran, are at 26.6% and 23.3%, respectively. If Bynum wins in November, this will be a pickup for House Republicans. 
• For the open seat Representative Laddie Shaw (R – Anchorage) is not seeking re-election for, the results are interesting. Independent Ky Holland is in the lead with 40.3%. But the three Republicans combined have neatly 60%, and they are close. Lucy Bauer is at 21.7%, Lee Ellis is at 19.3%, and Brandy Pennington is at 18.6%. There is already pressure to get two of the Republicans to drop, leaving Holland with just one Republican opponent. But it’s unclear if that will happen. If they all stay in and Republican voters rank, one of them should prevail in November. If not, there is a path for Holland to win due to drop-off. 
• Representative Craig Johnson (R – Anchorage) is down more than 20 points to former Republican Representative Chuck Kopp. Kopp was defeated by Tom McKay in the 2020 Republican primary. He was moved into Johnson’s district after redistricting. Kopp served as the rules chair in a previous House coalition. If Kopp wins in November, that could pose a problem for House Republicans as he could join a coalition. 
• Representative Stanley Wright (R – Anchorage) is down 19 votes to Democrat Ted Eischeid, 50.8% to 49.13%. Turnout in this district is 7.7%. This is going to be a close race and will be a determining factor in who controls the House next year. 
• Representative David Eastman (R – Wasilla) is annihilating his Republican opponent, Jubilee Underwood, 61.7% to 38.2%. Many Republicans were hoping to defeat Eastman, which would effectively be a pickup for them in the House as he has not been a reliable member for the Republican majority. He is well poised to win re-election. 
• On Thursday, Representative Jesse Sumner (R – Wasilla) withdrew. Sumner finished first in the primary with 32.6%. Republican Steve Menard is at 27.3%, Republican Elexie Moore is at 23.4%, and Republican Jessica Wright is at 16.5%. The most bizarre thing about this race is Sumner and Menard did not campaign (at least Menard did not report any campaign activity on his APOC reports). Moore gave most of her money to campaign hustler Joseph Lurtsema. And Wright barely raised any money. I have no idea who is going to win this race. But I am sure going to miss Sumner. He is a really good legislator. The good ones seem to always leave. 
• Six candidates are running for Representative Mike Cronk’s (R – Tok) seat. Republican Dana Mock and Libertarian James Fields are in fifth and sixth place, with 11.4% and 6.6%. Democrat Brandon Kowalski is at 34.4%. The three Republicans have 47.5% combined. Rebecca Schwanke is at 19.3%, Cole Snodgrass is at 14.2%, and Pam Goode is at 14%. When you add in Mock’s votes, Republicans captured more than 58%. A Republican should win this seat in November. Cole Snodgrass posted on his Facebook page that he will withdraw. Mock will move into his spot unless he also withdraws. If they both withdraw, Fields would then move up.
• Representative CJ McCormick (D – Bethel) has a big problem. With all 24 precincts reported, McCormick is in a distant second place with 27.9%. Democrat Nellie Jimmie is at 44.1%. Veterans Party of Alaska candidate Willy Keppel is at 20.6%, and Democrat Victoria Sosa (McCormick’s ex-girlfriend) is at 7.4%. If these percentages generally hold in November, McCormick would need to get the bulk of Sosa and Keppel’s votes to win. Nellie Jimmie must be feeling good. 
• Representative Thomas Baker (I – Kotzebue) also has a big problem. With 18 of 20 precincts reported, Baker is in third place with 29%. Just two votes separate Democrat Saima Chase and Democrat Robyn Burke, who are at 35.6% and 35.4%, respectively. The remaining precincts are Noatak (Northwest Arctic Borough) and Kaktovik (North Slope Borough). Baker and Chase are from the Northwest Arctic Borough while Burke is from the North Slope Borough. If these percentages generally hold in November, Chase and Burke will be competing for Baker’s second place votes. Chase probably has an edge as she and Baker are both from Kotzebue.

Police Problems

Anchorage Mayor Suzanne LaFrance quietly issued an apology to police and the public after her abrupt announcement of police reforms in the wake of police shooting and killing a 16-year-old girl. The problem was she looped in prior officer involved shootings that involved suspects with guns. Her apology was not at a press conference, but at a special meeting of the Assembly Public Health and Safety Committee that not many even knew about. You can watch it here (start at minute 6). It felt to me like a Soviet exercise where party members were forced to be humiliated by publicly apologizing and asking for atonement. Anchorage Police Chief Sean Case also spoke at the meeting. 

The Fairbanks Police Department seems to be paying attention to the anti-police attitude from some Anchorage officials. 

Check out this statement from the Public Safety Employees Association (PSEA) about the press conference Public Safety Commissioner Jim Cockrell held announcing charges assault against the two troopers in Kenai. 

Other Happenings 

Senator Bill Wielechowski (D – Anchorage) and Representatives Andy Josephson (D – Anchorage), Andrew Gray (D – Anchorage), and Genevieve Mina (D – Anchorage) were among Alaska’s delegates at the Democratic National Convention this week in Chicago. Mary Peltola stayed away. 

Speaker Mike Johnson (R – Louisiana), who initially endorsed Nancy Dahlstrom, has now endorsed Nick Begich. The rest of House leadership also fell in line.  

Steve Menard is one of the loosest people in Alaska politics. First, he put a sticker on one of his signs after the primary that said “#1 in PRIMARY.” He finished second. The, he posted on Facebook that Jesse Sumner endorsed him. Sumner has not. 

Senator Dan Sullivan (R – Alaska) is holding a fundraiser tomorrow night at the home of Mead Treadwell. Did they get enough co-hosts?!

The Alaska Oil and Gas Association (AOGA) is holding their annual conference in Anchorage this week at the Dena’ina Center. You can see more information here. I will be at my booth for the Alaska Political Report! 

This Week’s Loose Unit 

Steve Menard was a real contender this week. Claiming to finish first in the primary while finishing second and then claiming to be endorsed by someone who had not endorsed him is hyper loose. But that did not cut it this week. This week’s Loose Unit is the 1959 PAC. The only name I have for these Loose Units is Les Williamson, who is listed at their treasurer.

The 1959 PAC registered with the Federal Elections Committee on August 5 and is currently listed as an unauthorized committee. This appears to be because they have not completed their paperwork. 

Since August 7, the mystery 1959 PAC spent more than $750,000 in support of Nancy Dahlstrom! Yes, you read that right. $750,000. That’s nearly$60,000 a day for the 13 days before the primary. With all that money Dahlstrom got just under 20% of the vote. And she has since withdrawn. It does not get much loose than that. Their mystery donors should ask for a refund! 

If you have a nomination for this week’s Loose Unit, or if you have any political news, stories or gossip (or any old pics of politicians or public officials) please email me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com.