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Welpath

Landmine Staff Primary Predictions

By Landmine staff

Today is the 2018 Alaska primary election. Landmine staff went through all of the contested primary races in the state. Here are our thoughts and predictions. After reading, let us know your thoughts and why you agree or disagree in the comments section.

Please join us tonight at the Dena’ina Center from 7 pm to midnight for Election Central. We are partnering with the Anchorage Daily News to bring everyone a fun and high energy Election Central! We will have a panel broadcasting on Facebook Live and interviewing candidates. There will also be a DJ from KONR and a bar! We hope to see you all there.

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Dittman Research

2018 Alaska Primary Contested Primaries

US REPRESENTATIVE – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Prediction: Hard Galvin. Shein is cool and energetic, but Galvin is well funded and Alaskans are not going to elect a Russian Congressman in Trump’s America.

CUMINGS, CHRISTOPHER C. (NONPARTISAN)

GALVIN, ALYSE S. (UNDECLARED)

HAFNER, CAROL (DEMOCRAT)

SHEIN, DIMITRI (DEMOCRAT)


US REPRESENTATIVE – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

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URSA Optical

Prediction: Don Young – enough said.

NELSON, THOMAS “JOHN” (REPUBLICAN)

WHITTAKER, JED (REPUBLICAN)

YOUNG, DON (REPUBLICAN)


GOVERNOR – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Dunleavy – see above quote about Young. We do love Merica Hlactu though.

COLBRY, DARIN A. (REPUBLICAN)

DUNLEAVY, MIKE J. (REPUBLICAN)

GORDON, THOMAS A. (REPUBLICAN)

HEIKES, GERALD L. (REPUBLICAN)

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AES

HLATCU, MERICA (REPUBLICAN)

SHELDON, MICHAEL D. (REPUBLICAN)

TREADWELL, MEAD (REPUBLICAN)


LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR  – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Tough call but we are going with Meyer.

GATTIS, LYNN (REPUBLICAN)

GRUNWALD, EDIE (REPUBLICAN)

JACKSON, SHARON D. (REPUBLICAN)

MEYER, KEVIN G. (REPUBLICAN)

STEVENS, GARY L. (REPUBLICAN)

WRIGHT, STEPHEN (REPUBLICAN)


SENATE E – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Shower is the senator but Kowalke is extremely well known. Shower seems to have the hard right while Kowlake has the business and moderates. Calling this one a tossup. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

KOWALKE, RANDALL D. (REPUBLICAN)

SHOWER, MICHAEL K. “MIKE” (REPUBLICAN)


SENATE G – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Hard Reinbold.

RENBOLD, LORA H. (REPUBLICAN)

SADDLER, DAN (REPUBLICAN)


SENATE M – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Halat really never stood a chance against Birch. After it was reported that she and her husband have been charged with food stamp fraud, we can say for sure that the votes she gets represents the “I really hate Chris Birch” vote. Hard Birch.

BIRCH, CHRIS (REPUBLICAN)

HALAT, BEKAH (REPUBLICAN)


SENATE O – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Gillham is really active on social media, but represents a far right faction that has not caught traction on the peninsula. Hard Micciche.

GILLHAM, RONALD D. “RON” (REPUBLICAN)

MICCICHE, PETER A. (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 01 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Our Fairbanks peeps tell us Falke is a bit loose. Hard Lebon. 

FALKE, WOLFGANG (REPUBLICAN)

LEBON, BARTON S. “BART” (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 08 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: No idea who Murr is. We are calling this hard Neuman on account of the incumbent advantage.

MURR, ANDREW C. “ANDY” (REPUBLICAN)

NEUMAN, MARK (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 09 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Rauscher barely beat Colver two years ago. With Goode in the race, we are predicting Colver.

COLVER, JIM (REPUBLICAN)

GOODE, PAMELA (REPUBLICAN)

RAUSCHER, GEORGE (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 10 – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Prediction: Your guess is as good as ours!

FAYE-BRAZEL, PATRICIA A. (DEMOCRAT)

LACY, NEAL T. (DEMOCRAT)


HOUSE 11 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Two former mayors battle it out. Hard to say but we are going Johnson due to the incumbent advantage. 

DEVRIES, EDNA B. (REPUBLICAN)

JOHNSON, DELENA M. (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 13 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Judging by the debate in Eagle River, which Dahlstrom missed, Cook is very loose. Christenson seems like a nice guy, but hasn’t gained much traction. We are going with former Rep, Dahlstrom, who defended PFDs before defending PFDs was cool.

CHRISTENSON, CRAIG J. (REPUBLICAN)

COOK, BILL (REPUBLICAN)

DAHLSTROM, NANCY A. (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 14REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: This one is weird. Allard has the Reinbold endorsement, but Merrick has the Don Young endorsement and labor. If it was just Allard and Merrick, we would say Allard. However, with Harnett making the race a three-way, we are leaning Merrick.

ALLARD, JAMIE D. (REPUBLICAN)

HARNETT, EUGENE (REPUBLICAN)

MERRICK, KELLY R. (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 15 – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Prediction: Your guess is as good as ours!

FRANKS, LYN D. (DEMOCRAT)

MCCORMACK, PATRICK (DEMOCRAT)

PHILLIPS, RICK (UNDECLARED)


HOUSE 15 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Weaver has not done anything and LeDoux is a prolific campaigner. Hard LeDoux.

LEDOUX, GABRIELLE “GABBY” (REPUBLICAN)

WEAVER, AARON A. (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 20 – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Prediction: This one is difficult. Fields has the retiring Representative Les Gara endorsement, but Groh has Groh-mentum (see Midnight Sun article). Rojas has Senator Tom Begich’s endorsement. Too tough to call.

FIELDS, WILLIAM Z. “ZACK” (DEMOCRAT)

GROH, CLIFF (DEMOCRAT)

ROJAS, ELIAS (DEMOCRAT)


HOUSE 22REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Sara has worked hard but not raised much money. Vazquez is the former rep but she is also a bit out there. Hard to say but we are leaning Vazquez because of her name ID.

RASMUSSEN, SARA (REPUBLICAN)

VAZQUEZ, LIZ (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 23 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: McDonald has been working hard, but is a former Democrat – as recently as the 2016 election. Dougherty has not gained much traction though. We are conflicted on this one, but we are leaning McDonald.

DOUGHERTY, CONNIE R. (REPUBLICAN)

MCDONALD, FORREST J. (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 24 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Duplantis (more like “WhoPlantis”) never really got his campaign off the ground. Kopp is very well liked. Hard Kopp.

DUPLANTIS, STEPHEN J. (REPUBLICAN)

KOPP, CHARLES M. “CHUCK” (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 25 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Due to what we would call a serious conflict of interest from Landmine staff, we are staying out of this one (but many political insiders view this one as a tossup).

MILLETT, CHARISSE E. (REPUBLICAN)

REVAK, JOSH C. (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 26 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Too close to call. Recently, Joe was harshly rebuked by GOP Chair Tuckerman Babcock for attacking Fogle’s family. All three have worked the district. Shaw might end up benefiting from the Riggs/Fogle drama. We can’t call this one.

FOGLE, ALBERT (REPUBLICAN)

RIGGS, JOE (REPUBLICAN)

SHAW, LADDIE (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 27 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Jones is a bit of a Loose Unit. We are going hard Pruitt on this one.

JONES, DONALD W. (REPUBLICAN)

PRUITT, LANCE (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 28 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Bieling’s erratic behavior and obsession with his signs is really weird. He also recently threatened to sue the Landmine. We have actually endorsed Johnston because of how loose Bieling is. For the love of god, we all really need Johnston to win this one!

BIELING, ROSS P. (REPUBLICAN)

JOHNSTON, JENNIFER B. (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 29 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Your guess is as good as ours!

CARPENTER, BENJAMIN E. “BEN” (REPUBLICAN)

OGLE, WAYNE H. (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 31 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Some folks will indeed “Check the box for Cox” but we are calling this one for Vance.

COX, JOHN R. (REPUBLICAN)

KROLL, HENRY F. “HANK” (REPUBLICAN)

VANCE, SARAH L. (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 32 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: We don’t know much about Walker. Stutues is liked and is the incumbent. We are going with Stutes.

STUTES, LOUISE (REPUBLICAN)

WALKER, RICHARD H. “RICH” (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 33 – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Prediction: No idea, but Sara Hannan already has a campaign event scheduled for next week. Either very loose or very confident. It’s good enough for us to lean Hannan!

HANDY, STEVEN D. (DEMOCRAT)

HANNAN, SARA (DEMOCRAT)

HART, JAMES E. (DEMOCRAT)

MORPHET, TOM (DEMOCRAT)


HOUSE 34 – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Prediction: Story seems to have the advantage in this one.

EDWARDSON, ROBERT H. “ROB” (NONPARTISAN)

STORY, ANDREA “ANDI” (DEMOCRAT)


HOUSE 35REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Prediction: Your guess is as good as ours!

SKAFLESTAD, KENNY “KARL” (REPUBLICAN)

WEIN, RICHARD J. (REPUBLICAN)


HOUSE 37 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY 

Prediction: Probably Weatherby, but it doesn’t matter because Bryce Edgmon has got this in the general.

SWETZOF, STANLEY “STAN” (REPUBLICAN)

WEATHERBY, WILLIAM W. (REPUBLICAN)

 

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Juneauite

Jeff, my dude, do you know *anybody* in Juneau? Or anywhere outside Anchorage?

Anchoragian

Now we need a blog post comparing the results to these! What happened with the upsets?

Well done Revak tho