With all the votes now counted, former Republican Representative David Nelson is now beating Representative Cliff Groh (D – Anchorage) by 23 votes. This is the first time Nelson has led since the November 5 general election.
BREAKING: They just updated results. Republican David Nelson is now beating Rep. Cliff Groh by 23 votes! #akleg pic.twitter.com/JrISSO4fQc
— The Alaska Landmine (@alaskalandmine) November 21, 2024
Nelson was elected to the State House in 2020, but was narrowly defeated by Groh in 2022. The district includes Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, where turnout is higher in presidential election years.
This could spell problems for the recently announced House majority coalition. With Groh’s loss, their group numbers just 21 – the bare minimum for a majority in the House.
Democrat Nellie Jimmie, who defeated Representative CJ McCormick (D – Bethel) is one of those 21. Last week the Landmine reported that Jimmie was making big demands, such as co-chairing the powerful House Finance Committee – something unheard of for a freshman legislator.
Jimmie’s campaign was supported by Calista executives, while McCormick was supported by the Alaska Democratic Party. This puts Jimmie in a unique position.
If Jimmie decides to jump ship, the coalition would fall to 20 members, one shy of the minimum. If she stays, and no other Republicans join, she would effectively have a veto on any majority legislation and the budget.
Another factor is Ballot Measure 2, the repeal of ranked choice voting. With all the votes counted, it is now failing by a narrow margin. It’s within the margin for a state funded recount.
WOW! After an update, Ballot Measure 2, the repeal of ranked choice voting, is now losing by 664 votes. #akleg pic.twitter.com/dUDvQwATOD
— The Alaska Landmine (@alaskalandmine) November 21, 2024
But with the open primary and ranked choice voting set to remain for 2026, some House Republicans may consider joining the majority coalition. If Ballot Measure 2 had passed, any Republican who joined the majority coalition would have to run in a Republican primary in 2026. With that not being a factor, it’s possible a few might jump for a chance to be in the majority.
The big question is what would their price be to join the coalition? And what would the coalition be willing to give up to get a few more members.
The coalition is set to meet on Friday in Anchorage. The Landmine will provide updates on the situation as they become available.
jeff, your so monolithic in your analysis. oh my gosh, with a twenty one seat majority, boss calista will have a veto over the body. hmmmm, and so will any other member of that body have a veto over anything calista may want. uh oh, the terrible compromise might be back on table again.
It’s worth pointing out that the wrench in the monkey works that the Nelson upset provides is due to the fact that the formerly best Democratic representative Eastman is no longer representing a conservative portion of the state. Had David Eastman been reelected, the Nelson upset wouldn’t have spoiled the plans of the would be power brokers at all.
Now a majority comprised of the majority party might happen, instead of a minority party ruling the majority. Not likely given the duplicitous nature of many elected officials, but possible.
Question I haven’t counted the gender in the house now but me thinks it’s more women than men! Please do a story on that & how many of them will be in leadership control?