Democrat Nellie Jimmie, who is poised to unseat Representative CJ McCormick (D – Bethel) after last week’s election, could be a major factor in how the House organizes in January. However, because none of the four candidates in her race are close to being over 50%, this race will be decided using ranked choice voting. The retabulation will be done by the Division of Elections on November 20. 

Here are the results of her race after tonight’s update from the Division of Elections:

Multiple sources confirm that Jimmie has not committed to joining the newly formed House majority coalition – which currently sits at a fragile 22, if she is included. Jimmie has made spectacular demands to be part of the coalition majority, namely co-chairing the powerful House Finance Committee. It’s rare for freshmen to serve on the finance committee, let alone co-chair the committee.  

Following last week’s election, a coalition majority was announced in the House. This would flip control in the House from a Republican-led majority to a Democratic-led majority. 

Representative Bryce Edgmon (I – Dillingham) would serve as speaker. Representative Louise Stutes (R – Kodiak) would serve as rules chair. And Representative-elect Chuck Kopp (R – Anchorage) would serve as majority leader. No other leadership positions – including the finance co-chairs – were named. 

Jimmie is from the part of Alaska the includes the Calista region. The Landmine learned of a meeting last week where Jimmie met with Calista President/CEO Andrew Guy, Calista Director of Government Affairs Miranda Strong, lobbyist Ben Mohr (represents Calista), Jimmie’s sister Tonia Jimmie, who works for Calista, and Representative Neal Foster (D – Nome).

The specific details of the meeting are not clear. But what is clear is that Jimmie is in play. While Calista’s region is western Alaska, they have interests on the North Slope, including their drilling company Nordic Calista. Calista likely has reservations about the House majority being comprised of mostly Democrats, some of whom are not exactly proponents of resource development.

Jimmie could very well be in a position to negotiate with Republicans to join with them, or to leverage a better position with the Democrat-led coalition. The current majority has 22 members. But that includes Representative Cliff Groh (D – Anchorage), who only leads Republican David Nelson by 19 votes following tonight’s update. If Groh were to lose, their numbers would drop to 21. Jimmie would then be in an even more powerful position as a majority in the House requires a minimum of 21 members. 

Sources have confirmed that Jimmie has been in active talks with the Republicans. Jimmie is apparently unhappy that the Alaska Democratic Party supported Representative McCormick. Jimmie is also close with Democrat Saima Chase, who is in a three-way race with Representative Thomas Baker (I – Kotzebue) and Democrat Robyn Burke. Burke has a commanding lead in that race and will win after retabulation.

Jimmie has a lot of reasons to be unhappy. If she were to defect, she would break up the powerful four-member Bush Caucus. For decades, the Bush Caucus has been able to leverage powerful positions and concessions because of their bloc. 

The Landmine reached out to Jimmie but she was unavailable for comment. 

The finance committee seems to be a major point of contention for the current coalition majority. Sources report that many more members want to serve on the finance committee than they have spots. At 22 members, the majority would get seven members on the 11-member committee. At 21 members, the majority would only get six.

Representative Calvin Schrage (I – Anchorage) – who has never sat on the finance committee – is vying to serve as a co-chair, per sources. Representative Neal Foster (D – Nome) – who has long co-chaired the finance committee – would almost certainly serve as one of the co-chairs.

This is where the tension lies with Jimmie. Even if she were to settle with just being on the finance committee, other members who have already served in the Legislature would have to settle with not sitting on the committee. 

Three other spots for the coalition are likely already locked up. Representatives Andy Josephson (D – Anchorage), Alyse Galvin (I – Anchorage), and Sara Hannan (D – Juneau) currently sit on the committee. There is a longstanding tradition where existing members remain on the committee. Add in Foster, they only would only have a few spots remaining. 

Look for a lot of jockeying and negotiating in the following days. Many more votes remain to be counted after tonight’s update, which could impact the outcome of the Groh/Nelson race.

The coalition could solidify their majority if they lured a few Republicans over, but that could also upset some of their more progressive members. If Ballot Measure 2 passes, which aims to repeal open primaries and ranked choice voting, Republicans would be less likely to join as they would need to run in a party primary in two years. Yes is currently leading by just 1%.

The situation is ripe to potentially get very loose!