Last week I waited an hour to early vote. Normally I vote on election day, but I wanted to get it done this year as I will be slammed on Tuesday getting ready for our Election Central event at the Egan Center. 

I voted no on Ballot Measure 2, which aims to repeal Alaska’s open primary and ranked choice voting general election system that voters narrowly adopted in 2020.

In 2020, I voted against adopting the new system because, even though I wanted the open primary, I was concerned the ranked choice element would confuse voters. I was wrong about that. Not only were voters not confused, the ranked choice tabulation did not apply to the vast majority of races in 2022. 

Truthfully, I am ambivalent on ranked choice voting. The sole reason I voted no on Ballot Measure 2 is to keep the open primary.

A single open primary not only gives the nearly 60% of Alaskans who do not register with a party a fairer shot at running for office, it also prevents extreme or fringe Republicans and Democrats from winning their respective primaries. We all remember how toxic the old partisan primary system was. 

Many of those encouraging a yes vote on Ballot Measure 2 focus on how much they hate the ranked choice element of the system. The truth is most races in Alaska were not decided using ranked choice voting in 2022, and won’t be this year either. 

In 2022, a redistricting year, 62 seats were up – 59 legislative seats (40 House, 19 Senate), governor, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House. Only 12 of these races, or 19%, were decided using ranked choice tabulation. 

For races with one or two candidates, ranked choice does not apply. It only applies to races with three or four candidates where no candidate gets more than 50% in the first round.

Recall Governor Mike Dunleavy (R – Alaska) was re-elected in the first round with 50.29% of the vote. He was the first Republican governor re-elected in Alaska since Jay Hammond in 1978 and the first governor re-elected since Tony Knowles in 1994. 

Of the 59 legislative races in 2022, 56, or 95%, had one, two, or three candidates. Thirty-seven of them, or 62%, had one or two candidates, meaning ranked choice voting did not apply to those races. 

Of the 22 races with three or four candidates, only ten were decided using ranked choice voting. This is because in 12 of those races, the winner got more than 50% of the vote in the first round. 

In the ten legislative races in 2022 decided by ranked choice voting, eight resulted in a Republican winning. To be fair, some of these races had all or majority Republican candidates and some of those Republicans are criticized by conservatries for being too moderate. Nonetheless, no one can argue that ranked choice voting did not benefit Republicans. 

After the 2022 election, Republicans took back control of the House after six years of Democrat-led majority coalitions. A Republican governor was re-elected for the first time in 44 years. 

Many critics will point to Representative Mary Peltola (D – Alaska) being elected using ranked choice voting after the late Republican Don Young served nearly 50 years in the U.S. House. The truth is she would have likely won in the old system. Republican Sarah Palin got more votes than Republican Nick Begich in the special primary election and regular primary election. With Palin’s high negatives, Peltola almost certainly would have defeated her in a head-to-head race. 

And of course let’s not forget about Senator Lisa Murkowski (R – Alaska). It’s no secret many Republicans, especially the party types, don’t like her. They claim the new voting system was designed to get her re-elected. But after losing the 2010 primary to Joe Miller, Murkowski went on to win re-election as a write-in candidate – something that last happened in 1954. 

Had the old voting system remained in 2022, Murkowski likely would have run as a petition candidate, which would have required her to get signatures to appear on the ballot. Republican Kelly Tshibaka did not have anywhere near the name ID or momentum as Miller did in 2010. Murkowski would have beat her. 

Now let’s take a look at the upcoming election. Of the 50 legislative seats up, 37, or 74%, only have one or two candidates. Of the remaining 13 races with three or four candidates, my bet is eight or nine, or 16-18%, will be decided using ranked choice tabulation. But even if it’s all 13, that’s only a quarter of all of the legislative races. And in most of these cases, the leader in the first round will end up winning the race. 

The big race this year is something of a re-match between Mary Peltola and Nick Begich. This is essentially what would happen if we had the old system. Begich got more votes than Republican Nancy Dahlstrom in the primary, which caused her to withdraw even though she did not have to. 

There are two other candidates on the U.S. House ballot, incarcerated Democrat Eric Hafner and Alaska Independence Party (AIP) candidate John Wayne Howe. In the old system, Howe would also be on the ballot as the AIP has ballot access. That would likely harm Begich in a close race as Peltola could win in that system with a plurality. Regardless of the system, this will be a close race.  

No voting system is perfect. Under the old system, political parties could run place holder candidates and then switch them out after the primary. Under the current system, partiers exercise less control. Under the old system a candidate could win with a plurality of the vote instead of the majority. Under the new system, the winners of many races are no longer decided in the primary. 

I am not a vocal supporter of ranked choice voting, I could take it or leave it. But I am a huge fan of the open primary. Voting no on Ballot Measure 2 ensures the open primary remains. If you don’t like ranked choice voting but like the open primary, remember that the vast majority of races in Alaska were not deiced using ranked choice voting in 2022 and won’t be in 2024.