The Sunday Minefield – October 20, 2024

The November general election is just over two weeks away! Early and absentee voting starts tomorrow. Third quarter Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports were due this week, which show Representative Mary Peltola (D – Alaska) maintaining a large fundraising and cash advantage over her main opponent, Republican Nick Begich. The Eagle River Senate race between Senator Kelly Merrick (R – Eagle River) and Republican Jared Goecker is really heating up. And some more politicos are on the move. 

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Q3 FEC reports show Mary Peltola maintaining large cash advantage over Nick Begich

The following is an excerpt from this week’s special edition of the Alaska Political Report. You can click here for more information about the Political Report. A subscription is $1,299/year per organization. Discounted pricing is available for non-profits and government entities. Our coverage of the budget starts with the governor’s proposed budget, and we track everything in detail through the entire process. If you have any questions or would like to subscribe, please email jeff@akpoliticalreport.com.

Quarter 3 Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports for federal candidates were due on Oct. 15. These reports cover the period from July 1 – Sept. 30. The reports show Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) maintaining a significant fundraising and cash advantage over her main challenger, Republican Nick Begich. Peltola is sitting on a war chest of $3 million, while Begich has $512,000. 

The Nov. 5 general election is less than three weeks away, and polling shows the race is very close. In addition to their own spending, both Peltola and Begich are benefitting from millions in spending from third party groups and political action committees. 

In addition to Peltola and Begich, there are two other candidates in the race, Alaska Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe and Democrat Eric Hafner – who is currently incarcerated in New York.

If Peltola or Begich fail to get more than 50% on the first round, the second place votes of the fourth place finisher will be redistributed. If those votes do not get either one to more than 50%, then the second place votes of the third place finisher will be redistributed to determine a winner.  

Here are the Q3 highlights for each candidate: 

  • Mary Peltola took in more than $2.6 million – $2.4 million came from individuals while $284,000 came from political action committees. She spent $2.8 million, leaving her with just over $3 million cash on hand.
  • Nick Begich took in $694,000 – $579,000 came from individuals while $115,000 came from political action committees. He spent $512,000, leaving him with $440,000 cash on hand. Begich’s report lists a $425,000 debt owed to his campaign. He explained this was leftover from his last run. He loaned his campaign $650,000 during the last cycle, of which he paid himself back $225,000. He has not made any loans this cycle and says he is not going to pay himself back any of the previous loan. 

Eagle River Senate Race Heating Up 

The Eagle River Senate race between Senator Kelly Merrick and Jared Goecker is getting very loose. Both are Republicans, but Goecker – who filed to run in January – is running to the right of Merrick. Goecker is endorsed by Governor Mike Dunleavy (R – Alaska), but Merrick is supported by many big names in the resource industry. The race is dividing more moderate Republicans from the very conservative ones in Eagle River. 

Merrick has been attacked by Goecker and conservatives for being a member of the 17-member bipartisan Senate majority, which is comprised of both Republicans and Democrats. Merrick was easily elected to the Senate in 2022 after being in a bipartisan coalition in the House, but this time it’s different.

Even though Merrick was in a previous House coalition with more Democrats than Republicans, her 2022 opponent – former Republican Representative Ken McCarty – did not mount much of a campaign. McCarty was a candidate in the recent primary, but withdrew. Republican Sharon Jackson also withdrew, leaving Merrick, Goecker, and Democrat Lee Hammermeister. Merrick barely finished ahead of Goecker in the primary. And McCarty and Jackson combined got more than 18%. 

Hammermeister, who filed at the last minute in June, has only reported raising $7,000. But most of that is non-monetary and the rest is from himself. Everything points to him being a plant to try and help Goecker. A progressive group is even running ads saying that. In a close race, if Hammermeister peels off enough Democratic or progressive voters who don’t rank Merrick second, she could be in trouble.  

On the recent round of campaign finance reports, Merrick reported taking a $10,000 donation from Anchorage attorney Robin Brena. This created tension between Merrick and her resource industry supporters, who view Brena as their enemy. This Landmine article explains how Brena’s donation prompted a meeting between Merrick and the heads of several industry trade groups who were concerned with the donation and an upcoming fundraiser they were holding for her. 

Merrick’s husband, Joey Merrick, was also at the meeting and more or less ran it, according to sources who were there. Joey Merrick is the business manager for the Laborers Local 341. He’s very involved and influential in Alaska politics. It’s not clear how Joey Merrick manages his roles as a labor leader and husband to a state senator, but it appears they are blended. 

The resource group ultimately decided to still hold a fundraiser for Merrick this week, though sources say attendance was sparse. 

Since the Landmine article came out, several people have reported that Joey Merrick has made multiple calls to influential Alaskan business leaders and labor members insisting they support his wife. That’s one way to get votes!

Goecker has been campaigning hard and attacking Merrick for being in a coalition with Democrats. But Merrick is a well-funded incumbent. With Donald Trump on the ballot and Goecker being endorsed by Dunleavy, there is a good chance he could unseat Merrick. It will be very interesting if neither Merrick or Goecker get more than 50% on the first round and the race is decided by Hammermeister’s second choice votes. 

Other Happenings 

Not really sure what is up with Mia Costello

Katie McCall is leaving her role as a legislative staffer to work for the University of Alaska. Congrats to her on her new role. We are still racing next year, Katie!

Luke Miller had his last day at Hilcorp this week. He starts his new job as head of global media relations for Bechtel next week. His new job was reported in the October 6 Sunday Minefield. Miller’s job as manager of government and public affairs at Hilcorp was posted two weeks ago. And word is several Alaskans with resource connections have applied. It will be interesting who they end up hiring. My guess is they want to fill the role quickly.

This Landmine Twitter poll shows the race is very close. Which is also what the polls are indicating.  

I have not had time to look into this more, but it appears things in Nenana are getting very loose. They are holding a new election! Their meeting to discuss the new election is tomorrow. 

This Week’s Loose Unit 

This week’s designee was a real easy one. This week’s Loose Unit is Speaker Cathy Tilton (R – Wasilla). During a recent appearance on the Michael Dukes Show, Tilton went maximum loose by saying the quiet part out loud.

Some background. Representative Sarah Vance (R – Homer) had an election reform bill that was heavily altered by the Senate. It was sent back to the House too close to the end of session to go to a conference committee, so Vance made it clear she did not want the House to concur with the Senate’s changes. Nonetheless, several House members tried bringing the bill up on the last day of session for a concurrence vote. It ultimately failed 20-20, one vote shy of bringing it up for a concurrence vote.  

One of the changes the Senate made was eliminating the witness signature requirement for absentee ballots. Something the division admits it has no way of verifying. But if it’s blank the ballot isn’t counted. This has been an issue in rural areas in the past. 

Anyhoo, when talking about what happened, Tilton told Dukes the Republican majority killed the bill because it would have helped Democrat Mary Peltola. Maximum loose!

Tilton’s exact words were, “The changes in that bill definitely would have leaned the election towards Mary Peltola to be quite honest. And with no signatures on ballots, you know, in rural areas…”

I have no earthly idea why she thought it was a good idea to say that, but my god, that is classic Loose Unit behavior.  

You can watch the clip here:

If you have a nomination for this week’s Loose Unit, or if you have any political news, stories or gossip (or any old pics of politicians or public officials) please email me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com. 

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Dan Svatass
15 days ago

“ This Landmine Twitter poll shows the race is very close.”
-Jeff Landfield

Makes perfect sense for a website with the journalistic standards of Alaska Landmine to vouch for the accuracy on a nonscientific Twitter poll.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/public-opinion/Nonscientific-polling

Wonder what Landfield’s Ouija Board says?

Jim Bob
14 days ago

Aww man, I thought for sure that “Doctor” Nick was going to be the Loose Unit, after all he’s’ threatening to sue you and Dermot after the both of you damaged his worldwide reputation. Afterall, what more can you say about a guy whose “PhD” was issued by a well-known Diploma Mill in Sri Lanka, and who sells a device that he pitches as a “clinic in your hands !” Here’s what the National Institue of Medicine says about this device. Therefore, acupuncturists and researchers should not solely rely on these instruments to locate the acupuncture points. Pointer Plus and… Read more »