We have reached the halfway point of the 121-day constitutional limit for the legislative session. If all goes to plan, the session should be concluded by mid-May. The big news this week was Governor Mike Dunleavy’s (R – Alaska) veto of Senate Bill 140, the big education bill. The Legislature is scheduled for a joint session tomorrow afternoon to consider overriding the veto. The Legislature met in joint session on Tuesday (3/12/2024) to vote on Dunleavy’s 12 proposed executive orders relating to boards and commissions. And ballots for the April Anchorage mayoral election went out in the mail this week.

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If you missed our Anchorage mayoral debate yesterday with the four main candidates, you can watch it here!

SB 140 Veto 

On Thursday (3/14/2024), hours before the constitutional deadline, Governor Dunleavy vetoed SB 140, the omnibus education bill passed overwhelmingly by the Legislature. This came after weeks of speculation about what he would do. Many suspected he would let the bill go into law without signing it. But after the press conference he held several weeks ago, it was clear to me he had to veto the bill. In that press conference, he signaled to the Legislature that unless he got some of his priorities, he would veto the bill. He would have looked weak and foolish if he would have just let it go into law. He really boxed himself in with that press conference.

The veto brings with it a major political dilemma for several Republican legislators. For the ones in vulnerable districts, they are in a real lose-lose situation. If they vote to override the veto, they will be going against a Republican governor, which could either lead to conservative challengers or an issue with core Republican voters. If they vote to sustain the veto, they will be vulnerable to attacks from the education community and their progressive challengers.

Both sides are actively trying to influence these Republicans. Judy Eledge, a well-known Republican activist, sent out the below message to encourage Republicans to lean on Republicans who may vote to override. Americans for Prosperity Alaska, who encouraged Dunleavy to veto the bill, has also been working it. Some members have even said that Dunleavy told them if they voted to override he would support their Republican challengers.

The Alaska AFL-CIO released a poll yesterday that shows overwhelming support to override the veto. This is a signal to Republicans in vulnerable districts that if they don’t vote to override, a barrage of money will be spent against them and for their opponents.

Forty of 60 votes are required to override the veto. Of the 20 senators, I count 14 or 15 for sure yes votes to override the veto. The three members in the minority will vote no. Which leaves the 17 in the majority. I count the following as undecided for these reasons:

1. Senator Jesse Bjorkman (R – Nikiski): He’s probably a yes but he has to be thinking about how Representative Ben Carpenter (R – Nikiski) would use the vote against him.
2. Senator James Kaufman (R – Anchorage): He lives in a conservative leaning district, but it’s not the Mat-Su Valley. One of the reps in his district is Representative Calvin Schrage (I – Anchorage). There’s been chatter that Schrage might consider running against him if he votes to sustain the veto.
3. Senator David Wilson (R – Wasilla): He’s facing a conservative challenge from Rob Yundt. Wilson is already in a bi-partisan coalition. A vote to override a Republican governor would hand the race to Yundt.

There’s also the small possibility that some of the Democrats and moderate Republicans in the Senate majority will vote to sustain. If the veto is overridden, the few things Dunleavy did get (small increase to correspondence program and statewide charter coordinator) will remain, and then he can just veto the Base Student Allocation increase in the final budget. That would require 45 votes to override instead because it’s an appropriation bill. The reason some of them could vote to sustain is very political. If the veto stands, they can hang it around the neck of Dunleavy and the Republicans in vulnerable districts.

Of the 40 representatives, I count 20 for sure yes votes to override the veto. This is the entire 16-member minority plus Representatives Bryce Edgmon (I – Dillingham), Neal Foster (D – Nome), CJ McCormick (D – Bethel), and Will Stapp (R – Fairbanks). I had Stapp as undecided but he wrote an op-ed in the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner today saying he’s a yes vote. I count the following as undecided for these reasons:

1. Representative Thomas Baker (R – Kotzebue): Dunleavy appointed him. A yes vote would end him but he doesn’t seem to have very good political instincts.
2. Representative Julie Coulombe (R – Anchorage): In 2022 she beat independent Walter Featherly by just 112 votes out of 7,242 votes cast. He’s running against her again.
3. Representative David Eastman (R – Wasilla): You never know what he’s going to do.
4. Representative Craig Johnson (R – Anchorage): He beat Democrat Caroline Storm by nearly nine points in 2022. But a no vote could mean a tougher race for him.
5. Representative Justin Ruffridge (R – Soldotna): He’s probably a yes, but the Kenai Peninsula is very conservative. A yes vote would give a lot of ammo to a conservative challenger.
6. Representative Jesse Sumner (R – Wasilla): He could really go either way. He helped put the deal together, which is why he might vote to override. But if he does decide to run again, a yes vote would be a death sentence.
7. Representative Stanley Wright (R – Anchorage): In 2022 he beat Democrat Ted Eischeid by just 72 votes out of 3,772 votes cast. He’s running against Wright again.

Lots of lobbyists and education folks are saying a veto override is in the bag. But I’m not so sure. Whatever the outcome is tomorrow, it’s going to be close. If Dunleavy does get overridden, it will be not only be embarrassing, it will trigger a war between him and the Republicans who voted to override him.

Other Happenings 

The Legislature rejected eight of Dunleavy’s proposed 12 executive orders during a joint session on Tuesday. You can read more about it in this Alaska Public Media article.

Representative Jamie Allard (R – Eagle River), the House Education Committee co-chair, is now without any staff. She had Labor Commissioner Cathy Muñoz present a committee substitute bill this week. Which is really bizarre.

The Harding Lake Mafia is at it again. Their don, Gary Wilken, is on the Interior Gas Utility board of directors. I would love to see someone try and stop the trucks bringing gas from the Slope to Fairbanks just to see how this NIMBY fucko would react.

Representative Edgmon and Senator Donny Olson (D – Golovin) filed letters of intent for re-election this week. Reprersentive Craig Johnson officially filed for re-election this week.

I don’t believe there is rampant or widespread voter fraud. But I do believe there are improvements that need to be made. Brian Fechter moved to Washington in August. He got a driver’s license and registered to vote there on September 6, 2023. Both Alaska and Washington are members of the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC). His Washington voter registration should have triggered the cancellation of his Alaska voter registration. But instead he got an Anchorage ballot in the mail at his Washington address. And for all the people who have been saying it is a municipal election, the municipalities use the state voter database for their elections.

This Week’s Loose Unit 

This week’s Loose Unit is Governor Mike Dunleavy. And not necessarily because of the veto, but how it happened. After the press conference a few weeks ago where he indicated he was ready to work with the Legislature to get some of his education priorities, he went to D.C. for meetings and to attend the State of the Union. Very loose behavior. And then he waited until nearly 9 pm on the day of the deadline to act. This required legislative staff to stay late so they could process the veto. That’s not only loose, it’s inconsiderate. But what was really loose is how he just didn’t communicate about his intentions for weeks. He held a press conference the day after (where he had a black eye) where he thanked the Legislature but also went off about how they did not do what he wanted, and also said even if they override him he will partially veto the increase in the budget. The whole thing was just really loose.

If you have a nomination for this week’s Loose Unit, or if you have any political news, stories or gossip (or any old pics of politicians or public officials) please email me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com.