I am writing this week’s column from Prudhoe Bay! If you were following my journey from Fairbanks to Prudhoe on the Haul Road (Dalton Highway) with Senator Robb Myers (R – North Pole) in his big rig, you know how wild the trip was. What was supposed to be a 12 hour drive ended up taking more than 30 hours due to weather and a variety of issues on the road. We left Fairbanks Friday morning but did not get to Prudhoe until Saturday night. I was supposed to fly back to Anchorage from Prudhoe on Saturday morning, but now I am scheduled to fly back Monday morning. Stay tuned for a Landmine story about the whole trip. 

Governor Mike Dunleavy (R – Alaska) introduced the last budget of his term. Much was missing and he is again proposing to spend most of our remaining savings to pay a large dividend, something the Legislature will again reject. The updated revenue forecast that came out with the budget projects lower oil prices, putting even more pressure on the budget. And a Landmine post about proposed changes to the city seal from the Anchorage Assembly caused some serious drama. 

A friendly message and reminder to all our readers. The Landmine is made possible by myself and a team of awesome Alaskans. I have been covering the legislative session in Juneau for the last seven years and will be heading back for my eighth session in January. If you enjoy the content we provide, please consider making a one time or recurring monthly donation. You can click here to donate. We have a system that makes it super easy. We would really appreciate it. And thanks to everyone who has been supportive. 

Gov. Dunleavy releases FY2027 proposed budget, but much is missing

The following is an excerpt from this week’s special budget edition of the Alaska Political Report. You can click here for more information about the Political Report. A subscription is $1,299/year per organization. Discounted pricing is available for non-profits and government entities. Our coverage of the budget starts with the governor’s proposed budget, and we track everything in detail through the entire process. If you have any questions or would like to subscribe, please email jeff@akpoliticalreport.com.

Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R-AK) released details of his proposed fiscal year 2027 budget and the Fall Revenue Sources Book. He chose to release the budget four days before the statutory deadline of Dec. 15. The announcement, though, appears to be a bit premature. Legally required aspects of his budget release are currently missing or unspecified, and other aspects are not accompanied by the level of detail normally provided.

What we do know is that his proposed budget draws $1.88 billion from savings. Nearly two-thirds, 63%, of the remaining balance of the state’s savings account, the Constitutional Budget Reserve (CBR), currently holding a balance of less than $3 billion.

Gov. Dunleavy’s plan includes implementing roughly $1.6 billion of new revenue in FY2028, scaling up to $1.9 billion in FY2030. His comments, and additional details provided by his communications team, don’t specify what source or actions will be required to nearly double Alaska’s non-Permanent Fund yearly revenues.

His ideas are said to not yet be ready for release. A press conference is intended for some time in January, significantly later than the Dec. 15 statutory deadline, to detail legislation and policy required for his comprehensive fiscal plan.

This is the third year in a row Dunleavy has failed to meet this statutory requirement, a key piece of long-range planning in a state beholden to revenue volatility. To quote Dunleavy in budget release, “If we make the right choices today, we can lay the foundation for prosperity for Alaska for decades to come.” After seven years in office, “today” still appears to be several weeks away.

Rather than dwell on Gov. Dunleavy’s unknown ideas to transform the state, we will set aside the snark and take a look at the budget details he did release today. The Alaska Political Report will publish a more comprehensive detailed analysis of the Governor’s budget, the final of his term, this weekend after we have had time for a thorough review.

Revenue

Normally alongside the budget release, or in the preceding days, the Dept. of Revenue (DOR) publishes the fall edition of the Revenue Sources Book (RSB). The RSB is a detailed document that explains the projections for every source of revenue used in the state budget.

Rather than publish the full RSB, they have instead provided a seven-page document (for context, last-year’s RSB was 117 pages) with summary tables but none of the normal detail, likely to accommodate the Governor’s expedited release schedule. A full RSB should be released in the coming days.

FY2026 revenue projections have been adjusted for the downturn in oil prices. It is now based on an average price of $65.48 per barrel, a $2.52 reduction from the official forecast in March. Production for FY2026 saw a modest decline to 517,800 barrels a day, down 7,000.

Looking forward to FY2027, DOR anticipates production to average 621,200 barrels at a price of $62.00. With the updated forecast we can expect $5.98 billion of UGF revenue in FY2026 and $6.22 billion in FY2027.

FY2027 Proposed Budget

In FY2027, Dunleavy has proposed a budget with a deficit of $1.53 billion. This comes primarily from his inclusion of a full statutory Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD), at a cost of $2.37 billion. Omitting the PFD, the budget would otherwise have a surplus of $835 million, enough to pay a PFD equivalent to last year with some left over to address disasters and other cost pressures.

There are a couple non-PFD items of note that represent significant policy statements being made in the Governor’s budget.

• $3.5 million is included for the controversial Dept. of Agriculture. The new department was rejected by the Legislature during the regular session, but Dunleavy contends that the Legislature was required to reject it again when they met for special session this summer.
• The National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPR-A) program is omitted from the capital budget. The Governor is reviewing changes made to the revenue stream under recent federal legislation to see if it can be diverted from its normal use to state programs. The funding normally goes to projects in communities and villages that are impacted by oil development on the North Slope. Projects go through a ranking and vetting system before award. The Governors team believes there might be leeway to allow those funds to instead be used by the state outside of the NPR-A area.
• Contributions to the state retirement system, made on behalf of municipalities and school districts, for both PERS and TRS are funded below the level approved and recommended by the Alaska Retirement Management Board (ARMB). The budget fully funds PERS contributions for state employees but short funds the amount needed to make the actuarially determined contributions for municipal employees and teachers.

Neil Steininger, Budget Correspondent

If you would like to see the rest of this section, as well as a comprehensive breakdown of the entire budget, please consider subscribing to the Alaska Political Report. Email jeff@akpoliticalreport.com for a copy of the latest special report. 

Stop the steal! 

An online survey from the Anchorage Assembly where people could vote on either new designs for the city seal or keep the original one got very loose. And it looks like a Landmine social media post had something to do with it!

I made this post on the Landmine Facebook page and X account on Wednesday (12/10/2025) night. I think changing the seal is dumb as there are dozens of other problems facing the city ranging from homelessness to crime to snow plowing to the budget. That, and the proposed changes are all too busy and don’t look good. There are reasons people like the Alaska and New Mexico flags, they are clean and simple.

The Landmine post got a ton of traction. Many people messaged me and told me they voted to keep the seal. By Friday (12/12/2025), less than two days after my post, Alaska Public Media published this article, “Anchorage officials say online survey for new municipal seal was manipulated.”

From the article, “Anchorage officials put out a web survey late last month for members of the public to weigh in on five proposed seals, including one that has no changes. But Anchorage IT staff say over 2,100 responses were logged in under an hour earlier this week, leading officials to believe they were fraudulent. The responses used variations of the exact same language and were in support of not changing the seal at all.

The survey has since been shutdown! Assembly Chair Chris Constant, who clearly favors replacing the seal, is not happy. The Assembly is scheduled to choose one of the options during Tuesday’s meeting. Hopefully they are smart and just keep the existing seal. 

This Week’s Loose Unit

The looseness surrounding the Anchorage seal was definitely in the running this week. But some social media posts by a true hack made this week’s designee clear. This week’s Loose Unit is Governor Dunleavy’s chief propogandist Todd Smoldon.

Before I get started, keep in mind Todd Smoldon has been working for Dunleavy since early 2019. Meaning this guy has sucked out an amazing amount of money from the state for basically doing nothing except trolling and shit posting on social media. Imagine if his salary instead went to the DOT guys working the Haul Road. We would all be a lot better off. 

First, after Dunleavy unveiled his incomplete budget, Smoldon took to Facebook with a post that would have impressed Joseph Goebbels. In the post, he actually claimed Dunleavy’s budget is “balanced” and then blamed the Legislature for “taking your PFD.” 

One, Dunleavy’s budget is not balanced. He is proposing to spend 2/3 of the remaining $3 billion in the CBR to cover supplemental needs for FY2026 (mostly due to things Dunleavy vetoed) and for a mega dividend for FY2027. If Dunleavy was able to do what Smoldon thinks is such a good idea, the CBR would have been emptied not long after Dunleavy took office. 

Two, Smoldon left out that Dunleavy was on board with the Fiscal Policy Working Group’s recommendation to change the PFD formula to a 50/50 (half of the yearly draw from the Permanent Fund). While not perfect (it is still not affordable due to revenue issues), it was a step in the right direction to acknowledge the current formula is dumb and unaffordable. Most of the legislators were on board with going to a 50/50. And Dunleavy’s support meant it was possible to change the formula. But after Russia invaded Ukraine and oil prices skyrocketed in 2022, an election year, Dunleavy abandoned a year of work in five minutes during a press conference. He could not resist again pushing for a mega dividend when he was up for re-election. Some leadership, Todd! 

Third, Smoldon is under the delusion that Dunleavy is going “once again present a path to fiscal sustainability that includes a PFD.” Either Todd is a complete idiot or believes lying is in his job description. What the hell does he mean once again? Dunleavy has done nothing to fix our state’s fiscal problems. If we did the things Dunleavy has suggested (spending savings and Permanent Fund money to pay mega dividends), the state would be in worse shape than it already is, if you can even imagine that. And remember all the carbon nonsense from Dunleavy that he said would bring in billons? So far, it’s….. ZERO! 

And finally, remember when Dunleavy had a sales tax all teed up several years ago but then pulled it at the last minute? Whether he was worried about re-election or getting a job with the Trump administration, he abandoned that idea. What a leader, Todd! Dunleavy’s mystery fiscal plan where he claims there will be billions in new revenue after he leaves office is as loose as Todd Smoldon’s propaganda. 

You can see Smoldon attempting to sound smart by replying to comments made from me and Senator Rob Yundt (R – Wasilla). This Smoldon is a classic Loose Unit! 

And Todd, I have been going down to Juneau for session since 2019. But unlike you, I am not a hack and don’t kiss anyone’s ass. Your boss has had seven years to do something, anything, but has done nothing. We have an energy crisis, are almost out of savings, our education results are abysmal, we don’t build anything, people are leaving, businesses are closing, and there is a general malaise plaguing the state. Your guy has been in charge for seven years and has done fuck all to fix it. The one positive thing is that in a year you will be out of your bullshit job and will cease to leech off the state. Good luck in the private sector! 

If you have a nomination for this week’s Loose Unit, or if you have any political news, stories or gossip (or any old pics of politicians or public officials) please email me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com.