Tomorrow is the 2020 Alaska primary election. Landmine staff went through all of the contested primary races in the state. Here are our thoughts and predictions. After reading, let us know your thoughts and why you agree or disagree in the comments section.
Please join us tomorrow night for our virtual Election Central. We will be streaming on Facebook Live and YouTube. We will have a panel discussing the races and results as well as interviewing candidates. Unfortunately, the Division of Elections is not going to post absentee ballot results until August 25. So it might not be clear tomorrow night who the winners are for close races.
2020 Alaska Primary Contested Primaries
US SENATOR – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Prediction: Gross has raised a ton of money and has the support of the Alaska Democratic Party. Hard Gross.
GROSS, AL (NONPARTISAN)
CUMINGS, CHRIS C. (NONPARTISAN)
BLATCHFORD, EDGAR (DEMOCRAT)
US REPRESENTATIVE – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Prediction: This is her second run and she has the support of the Alaska Democratic Party. Hard Galvin.
GALVIN, ALYSE S. (UNDECLARED)
TUGATUK, RAY SEAN (DEMOCRAT)
HIBLER, WILLIAM “BILL” (DEMOCRAT)
US REPRESENTATIVE – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Don Young – enough said.
NELSON, THOMAS “JOHN” (REPUBLICAN)
YOUNG, DON (REPUBLICAN)
HEIKES, GERALD L. “JER”
SENATE B – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Like some of his Senate Republican colleagues, Coghill is being targeted for, believe it or not, not being conservative enough. However, with his strong name ID and Myers’ low fundraising numbers, Coghill should win this one.
COGHILL, JOHN B. JR. (REPUBLICAN)
MYERS, ROBERT H. JR. (REPUBLICAN)
SENATE D – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: This is a jammed up 6-way Valley primary! With all these people in the race Wilson should easily win. It’s worth noting that Huhnke Lee is using this is a platform to run for president.
WILSON, DAVID S. (REPUBLICAN)
LEE, HUHNKIE (REPUBLICAN)
WRIGHT, STEPHEN (REPUBLICAN)
RUPRIGHT, BERNADETTE “BEE” (REPUBLICAN)
THURMAN, LOY “SANTA” (REPUBLICAN)
MCCAIN-FINCH, CHANDRA S. (REPUBLICAN)
SENATE L – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Duplantis has hardly raised any money, thinks COVID is a hoax, and believes George Floyd is not real. Von Imhof will win.
VON IMHOF, NATASHA A. (REPUBLICAN)
DUPLANTIS, STEPHEN J. (REPUBLICAN)
Full disclosure, Jeff Landfield is running for this seat as a Non-Affiliated candidate in the general election.
SENATE M – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Both of Revak’s opponents have hardly raised any money or actually campaigned. Borbridge just posts weird videos on Facebook. Revak will win.
REVAK, JOSHUA C. (REPUBLICAN)
BORBRIDGE, HAROLD (REPUBLICAN)
METCALFE, RAY (REPUBLICAN)
SENATE M – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Prediction: Both have raised $0 but Thorne ran for the House in 2018. Thorne should win this one.
WILLIE, NICHOLAS G. (DEMOCRAT)
THORNE, ANITA L. (DEMOCRAT)
SENATE N – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: This is one of the big races. Senate President Giessel is facing first time candidate Roger Holland. Mail has been flying around and it has been getting nasty. Giessel is under fire from Republicans for working with Senate Democrats and pushing back on Dunleavy’s vetoes in 2019. Based on the way Giessel is campaigning, she seems to be in trouble. Lean Holland.
GIESSEL, CATHY (REPUBLICAN)
HOLLAND, ROGER (REPUBLICAN)
SENATE N – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Prediction: Johnson is campaigning and Hinz, a perennial candidate, has raised hardly any money. Johnson will win.
JOHNSON, CARL (DEMOCRAT)
HINZ, LYNETTE MORENO (DEMOCRAT)
SENATE P – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: John “Bear” Cox is back at it. While some people will surely “Check the box for Cox,” Stevens will win this one.
STEVENS, GARY (REPUBLICAN)
COX, JOHN R. “BEAR” (REPUBLICAN)
SENATE R – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Michael Sheldon is back at it after his 2018 bid for governor. Stedman is the co-chair of the Senate Finance Committee. Also, Sheldon bizarrely enough was endorsed by Donna Arduin. Stedman will win this one.
STEDMAN, BERT K. (REPUBLICAN)
SHELDON, MICHAEL D. (REPUBLICAN)
SENATE T – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: People up north report that while this one may be close, Baker should pull it off.
MOTO, CALVIN D. II (REPUBLICAN)
BAKER, THOMAS C. (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 01 – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Prediction: As one Fairbanks insider told us, “Quist is on the Borough Assembly but Colbert has more friends.” Calling this one a toss up.
QUIST, CHRISTOPHER (DEMOCRAT)
COLBERT, BENNIE D. (DEMOCRAT)
HOUSE 02 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Thompson is under fire from Republicans for being in a coalition in the House with Democrats. But he has been around a long time and was a former mayor. Lean Thompson.
THOMPSON, STEVE M. (REPUBLICAN)
SELLE, DAVE (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 05 – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Prediction: While Mark Begich has endorsed Hughes, Wool is well known and used to own the Blue Loon. Hughes has not raised much money. Wool should win this one.
WOOL, ADAM L. (DEMOCRAT)
HUGHES, TARYN M. (DEMOCRAT)
HOUSE 06 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: 3-way races are always tough but despite his blackface pic dressed up as Madea, Cronk has a lot of support from Republicans. We are going with Mike “Mama” Cronk on this one.
MORRIS, JULIE M. (REPUBLICAN)
SMITH, RYAN (REPUBLICAN)
CRONK, MIKE (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 07 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: This race has gotten nasty. Mail has been flying and third party groups are involved. Even though Gattis is a conservative and former legislator, she is under fire for some of her past votes. This is a tough one. We are going lean Kurka.
KURKA, CHRISTOPHER (REPUBLICAN)
GATTIS, LYNN (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 08 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Neuman was absent a lot last session and has not raised much money. McCabe on the other hand has raised a lot and has been campaigning hard. Hard McCabe
NEUMAN, MARK A (REPUBLICAN)
MCCABE, KEVIN J. (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 09 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Rauscher only recently started campaigning. Howard had raised money but is way out there. Third party groups are trying to save Rauscher. Tough but we are going lean Rauscher.
RAUSCHER, GEORGE (REPUBLICAN)
HOWARD, LUCAS D. “LD” (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 10 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: This is another big race. Sumner has put over $60,000 of his own money into it and has third party groups supporting him. Eastman has kind of a cult following and has a group from the lower 48 campaigning for him. We are going lean Eastman on this one.
EASTMAN, DAVID (REPUBLICAN)
SUMNER, JESSE M. (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 11 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: We’re not entirely sure who Fetta is. He has hardly raised any money. Johnson will win this.
JOHNSON, DELENA (REPUBLICAN)
FETTA, ALEX (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 13 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Jackson is the incumbent but McCarty has been working hard. This is a tough one. Calling it a toss up.
MCCARTY, KEN (REPUBLICAN)
JACKSON, SHARON D. (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 15 – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Prediction: Franks has run before and has name ID. The other two have raised little money. Franks should easily win this one.
FRANKS, LYN D. (DEMOCRAT)
MCCORMACK, PATRICK (DEMOCRAT)
PHILLIPS, RICK (UNDECLARED)
HOUSE 15 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: This is another big one. LeDoux is a prolific campaigner but she nearly lost last time to an unknown in the primary. She has a big target on her. Nelson is young but has been campaigning hard. Tough to call but we are going lean Nelson.
NELSON, DAVID (REPUBLICAN)
LEDOUX, GABRIELLE R. “GABBY” (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 16 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Walker put $5,000 into his campaign but has not spent any of it. Bauer has name ID but no money. Going with Bauer.
WALKER, DAVID G. (REPUBLICAN)
BAUER, PAUL A. (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 22 – ALASKA INDEPENDENCE PRIMARY
Prediction: The only non Republican or Democratic contested primary! These two are a couple of beauties and perennial candidates. Darden probably wins, but whoever wins the voters of District 22 lose.
DARDEN, DUSTIN T. (ALASKAN INDEPENDENCE)
NEES, DAVID W. (ALASKAN INDEPENDENCE)
HOUSE 23 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Connie! ran in 2018 and won her primary against Forrest McDonald. Henslee is a first time candidate but has racked up some big endorsements. Both are working. Close but we are going lean Henslee.
DOUGHERTY, CONNIE (REPUBLICAN)
HENSLEE, KATHERINE J “KATHY” (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 24 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Another big race. Like other Republicans in the House coalition, Kopp has a target on his back. McKay is a first time candidate but is a former Republican party boss. Lots of third party money in this one. We are going lean McKay.
KOPP, CHUCK M. (REPUBLICAN)
MCKAY, THOMAS W. “TOM” (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 25 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Gillis is the incumbent and has raised a lot of money. He is also campaigning hard. Rodriguez is unknown and has raised $0. Gillis got this. Fun fact, Rodriguez has the same name as “Benny the Jet” Rodriguez from the Sandlot.
GILLIS, MEL (REPUBLICAN)
RODRIGUEZ, BENJAMIN (REPUBLICAN)
Full disclosure, Jeff Landfield is a deputy treasurer for Gillis and has been helping on his campaign.
HOUSE 25 – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Prediction: Both have been working and raising money but Park has run before. Schrage has been active on social media. Hard to say but we are going lean Schrage.
PARK, JANICE LYNN (DEMOCRAT)
SCHRAGE, CALVIN R. (NONPARTISAN)
HOUSE 28 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Another big race. Like Kopp and other Republicans, Johnston has a target on her back. Kaufman is a first time candidate but has been working hard. We are going with Kaufman.
JOHNSTON, JENNIFER B. (REPUBLICAN)
KAUFMAN, JAMES D. (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 30 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Knopp was tragically killed in a mid air collision at the end of July. His name will remain on the ballot because he died after ballots were printed. Gillham almost beat Micciche in 2018 and is endorsed by Republicans in this race. Gillham should win.
KNOPP, GARY A. (REPUBLICAN)
WOLF, KELLY J. (REPUBLICAN)
GILLHAM, RONALD D. “RON” (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 35 – REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Prediction: Arthur has made some bizarre blog posts and would be a fun candidate in the general. Neither have raised much money. Our people in Southeast tell us Skaflestad should win this one.
MARTIN, ARTHUR S. (REPUBLICAN)
SKAFLESTAD, KENNY (REPUBLICAN)
HOUSE 39 – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Prediction: Foster is the incumbent and co-chair of the House Finance Committee. Ivanoff has hardly raised any money. Foster got this.
FOSTER, NEAL W. (DEMOCRAT)
IVANOFF, TYLER L. (DEMOCRAT)
If you have not voted yet, make sure to vote tomorrow!