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Landmine Staff Election Predictions

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Today is the 2018 Alaska general election. Landmine staff went through all of the races in the state. Here are our thoughts and predictions. After reading, let us know your thoughts and why you agree or disagree in the comments section.

Please join us tonight at the Egan Center from 7 pm to midnight for Election Central. We are partnering with the Anchorage Daily News to bring everyone a fun and high energy Election Central! A big thanks to GCI and Dittman Research for sponsoring. We will have a panel broadcasting on Facebook Live and interviewing candidates. There will also be a DJ from KONR and a bar! We hope to see you all there.

2018 Alaska General Election

US REPRESENTATIVE

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Prediction: This is Don Young’s 24th election. Alyse Galvin’s message has basically been I’m not Don Young. That is not the way to beat Don. We predict Young will win by 8-10 points. 

GALVIN, ALYSE S. (UNDECLARED) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

YOUNG, DON (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


GOVERNOR

Prediction: Walker getting out changed the race. Based on his long campaign, and all the PAC money supporting him, we are going with Dunleavy. But he should be very happy the election is not two weeks later or Walker did not get out two weeks earlier. Our prediction is Dunleavy 49%, Begich 45%, Walker 4% and Toien 2%. 

BEGICH, MARK / CALL, DEBRA (DEMOCRAT)  ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEES

DUNLEAVY, MIKE J. / MEYER. KEVIN (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEES

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TOIEN, WILLIAM S. “BILLY” / CLIFT, CAROLYN C. “CARE” (LIBERTARIAN) ALASKA LIBERTARIAN PARTY NOMINEES

WALKER, BILL (UNDECLARED) / MALLOTT, BYRON I. (DEMOCRAT) NOMINATING PETITION


BALLOT MEASURE 1 (STAND FOR SALMON)

A lot of money has been raised and spent on this one. We think the No side will prevail. Our prediction is YES – 42% and No – 58%


SENATE A

Prediction: This one is tough. There has been a ton of money raised. Kelly is the incumbent but Kawasaki has been in the House for 10 years and is a hard campaigner. We debated this one a lot. We are ever so slightly leaning Kawasaki but it’s really a toss-up. 

KAWASAKI, SCOTT (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

KELLY, PETE (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


SENATE C

Prediction: Bishop is running unopposed. Congrats, Click! 

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BISHOP, CLICK (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


SENATE E

Prediction: We are going with the fighter pilot. Hard Shower. 

KAY, SUSAN “SU” (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

SHOWER, MICHAEL K. “MIKE” (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


SENATE G

Prediction: This is Eagle River. Hard Reinbold. Here we go. 

REINBOLD, LORA H. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

SCHIESS, OLIVER (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


SENATE I

Prediction: This is the seat Senator Berta Gardner is vacating. Gray-Jackson has raised a ton of money and is a hard campaigner. Hard Gray-Jackson. 

CRAWFORD, JIM (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

GRAY-JACKSON, ELVI (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


SENATE K

Prediction: Costello is the incumbent and Cason never really got a campaign off the ground. Hard Costello. 

CASON, SAM (UNDECLARED) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

COSTELLO, MIA (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


SENATE M

Prediction: This is a very Republican district and Birch is well liked. Hard Birch. 

BIRCH, CHRIS (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

PARK, JANICE (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


SENATE 0

Prediction: Micciche was nearly beat by Gillham in the primary. Now Gillham, and some other cat, are running write-in campaigns. We are going with Micciche but damn, he sure is running hard when he is the only one on the ballot!

GILLHAM, RONALD D. “RON” (REPUBLICAN) – WRITE-IN

KING, WILLOW (NON AFFILIATED) – WRITE-IN

MICCICHE, PETER A. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


Senate Q

Prediction: This is the seat Senator Dennis Egan is vacating. Hard Kiehl. 

ETHERIDGE, DON R. (NONPARTISAN) – NOMINATING PETITION

KIEHL, JESSE (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


Senate S

Prediction: Has Hoffman ever had an opponent? Congrats, Lyman! 

HOFFMAN, LYMAN F. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 1

Prediction: This is the seat Kawasaki is vacating to run for the senate. This is a tough one. We are calling it a toss-up.

DODGE, KATHRYN E. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

LEBON, BARTON S. “BART” (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 2

Prediction: Thompson has been there for a long time. We are going with Thompson. 

LAWRENCE, VAN (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

THOMPSON, STEVE (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 3

Prediction: Wilson is running unopposed. Must be nice! 

WILSON, TAMMIE (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 4

Prediction: Lamkin could prove to be a spoiler. Hopkins is well connected and well liked. Sackett has raised a lot of money though. Leans Hopkins. 

HOPKINS, GRIER (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

LAMKIN, TIM (NONPARTISAN) – NOMINATING PETITION

SACKETT, JIM (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 5

Prediction: We like both candidates a lot. This is one of the races we profiled. Wool is well known (owns the Blue Loon) and the incumbent. But some folks aren’t happy about his involvement in the distillery issue during the session. Leans Wool. 

MCKINLEY, KEVIN (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

WOOL, ADAM L. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 6

Prediction: Hard Talerico

ALEXANDER, ED (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

TALERICO, DAVID M. “DAVE” (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 7

Prediction: Another unopposed. Congrats, Colleen! 

SULLIVAN-LEONARD, COLLEEN (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 8

Prediction: Everyone loves a Libertarian! Sorry, Mark. Hard Neuman

CHESBRO, JAMES L. JR. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

FISH, MARK (LIBERTARIAN) ALASKA LIBERTARIAN PARTY NOMINEE

NEUMAN, MARK (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 9

Prediction: Oddly Squyres is running as a Republican by petition. Weird. We are saying leans Rauscher. Keep it rock solid, George! 

JOHNSON, BILL (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

SQUYRES, JAMES A. (REPUBLICAN) – NOMINATING PETITION

RAUSCHER, GEORGE (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 10

Prediction: Another Republican by petition. What’s happening in the Valley? Come on, it’s David Eastman and the Valley. Hard Eastman. 

FAYE-BRAZEL, PATRICIA A. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

HOLMES, DOYLE E. (REPUBLICAN) – NOMINATING PETITION

EASTMAN, DAVID (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 11

Prediction: We love Eileen. But this is the Valley. Hard Johnson (wait, what?)

PATTERSON, EILEEN E. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

JOHNSON, DELENA M. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 12

Prediction: We don’t know anything about Jeffers but we love the name, well Jeff does. Hard Tilton. 

JEFFERS, STEPHANY (UNDECLARED) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

TILTON, CATHY L. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 13

Prediction: How many calories did Kimp burn running 5 miles two mornings a week for his campaign? Did anyone join him? Sorry, Danyelle. Hard Dahlstrom. 

DAHLSTROM, NANCY A. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

KIMP, DANYELLE D. (NONPARTISAN) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 14

Prediction: Hard Merrick

HACKENMUELLER, JOE (NONPARTISAN) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

MERRICK, KELLY R. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 15

Prediction: It’s a party in 15! After the mess in the primary, the Republicans came out hard for Sloan’s write-in. Franks has not had much of a campaign. And Gabby is a honey badger. Leans LeDoux. We are worried about how Tuckerman Babcock will react if she wins. We are here for you, Tuckerman. 

FRANKS, LYN D. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

MCCORMACK, PATRICK (DEMOCRAT) – WRITE-IN

PHILLIPS, RICK (NON AFFILIATED) – WRITE-IN

SLOAN, JAKE (REPUBLICAN) – WRITE-IN

LEDOUX, GABRIELLE “GABBY” (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 16

Prediction: We love Stanley but Ivy is well liked and this is a very Democratic district. Hard Spohnholz.

WRIGHT, STANLEY A. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

SPOHNHOLZ, IVY A. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 17

Prediction: Gotta love that ‘Marcus in the House’ slogan but again, a very Democratic district and Andy is well liked. Hard Josephson.

SANDERS, MARCUS (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

JOSEPHSON, ANDREW L. “ANDY” (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 18

Prediction: Lekanof is young and has worked hard, but this is also a very Democratic district. Mike Gordon couldn’t even beat Drummond. Hard Drummond. (Take an Uber tonight, Anthony)

LEKANOF, ANTHONY C. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

DRUMMOND, HARRIET A. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 19

Prediction: We love Cean and her little wiener dogs, but this is Tarr’s turf. She’s not going to get beat by a Libertarian. Sorry, Cean. Hard Tarr. 

STEVENS, CEAN (LIBERTARIAN) ALASKA LIBERTARIAN PARTY NOMINEE

TARR, GERAN (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 20

Prediction: Another Libertarian. What’s happening? This is downtown Anchorage. And did you hear? Fields is endorsed by Representative Les Gara. Hard Fields. Zack, go easy on the Aussies, mate. 

FIELDS, WILLIAM Z. “ZACK” (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

MARTINSON, CEEZAR X. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

WEST, WARREN P. (LIBERTARIAN) ALASKA LIBERTARIAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 21

Prediction: Stewart keeps running and keeps getting closer, but Claman is generally well liked (except from the crime stuff) and works hard. Leans Claman.

STEWART, MARILYN REPUBLICAN (ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

CLAMAN, MATT (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 22

Prediction: We can’t believe we are saying this but it really depends on how many votes Darden gets. Ugh. Jason is a hard worker and well liked. Sara beat Liz Vazquez in the Republican primary and has been running a good campaign. We are calling this one a toss-up.

DARDEN, DUSTIN (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

GRENN, JASON S. (NONPARTISAN) – NOMINATING PETITION

RASMUSSEN, SARA (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 23

Prediction: Tuck has not ran much of a campaign. But he has represented the district for 10 years and is well liked. Connie! has ran a rather bizarre campaign. Did you see the nip Tuck video? Very weird. Hard Tuck. 

DOUGHERTY, CONNIE R. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

TUCK, CHRIS (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 24

Prediction: Folks, this is Chuck Kopp, one of the nicest people in the legislature. And it’s South Anchorage. Hard Kopp.  

LEVI, SUE (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

KOPP, CHARLES M. “CHUCK” (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 25 

Prediction: This race has gotten pretty nasty in the last few days with some awful mailers. Revak beat Charisse Millett by 15 points in the primary. He’s been running a hard campaign and has a compelling story. Higgins has ran for the seat many times. Soft lean Revak. (Full disclosure, Jeff Landfield is chairing a group that is supporting Revak. He did not give any input in this one). 

HIGGINS, PAT (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

REVAK, JOSH C. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 26

Prediction: Folks, this is all Laddie Shaw. Laddie Shaw! We are going with the Navy Seal. Hard Shaw. Juneau about to get lit. 

SHAW, LADDIE (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

THORNE, ANITA L. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 27

Prediction: Snyder has raised a lot of money but she does not seem to have much of a message other than we need to get rid of Pruitt. Liz, you didn’t hear? He can do it! Lance always seems to win when people think he won’t. Leans Pruitt.

SNYDER, LIZ (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

PRUITT, LANCE (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 28

Prediction: The Stalker has a hard lady crush on Amber Lee. But this is South Anchorage and Jennifer is well known and well liked. Hard Johnston.

LEE, AMBER M. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

JOHNSTON, JENNIFER B. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 29

Prediction: We hear good things about Butler. But this is the Kenai and has been represented by Mike Chenault for a long time. Hard Carpenter. 

BUTLER, SHAWN A. (NONPARTISAN) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

CARPENTER, BENJAMIN E. “BEN” (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 30

Prediction: Go, Gary! Go, Gary! Unopposed. Congrats. 

KNOPP, GARY A. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 31

Prediction: This is a tough one. We discussed it for a while. Seaton switched from Republican to Non-Partisan (who can blame him). Vance had some bizarre conditions, like no booze, about where she would debate Seaton. Seaton is well liked but he switched parties. We don’t know what effect that will have. We are calling this one a toss-up. 

VANCE, SARAH L. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

SEATON, PAUL (NONPARTISAN) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 32

Prediction: Hard Stutes

HARRIS, DENNIS P. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

KATELNIKOFF-LESTER, SANDRA M. (NONPARTISAN) – NOMINATING PETITION 

STUTES, LOUISE (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 33

Prediction: Dimond’s social media game is on point. He’s also a Dimond. But this district leans left. We are saying leans Hannan. At least Sam Kito can go on a vacation. Sam, call Jeff Landfield if you wanna get loose. 

DIMOND, CHRIS (UNDECLARED) – NOMINATING PETITION

HANNAN, SARA (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 34

Prediction: Leans Story 

NANKERVIS, JERRY A. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

STORY, ANDREA “ANDI” (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 35

Prediction: That Michael Sheldon guy, who ran for governor, is running as a write-in! Hard JKT.

SHELDON, MICHAEL (REPUBLICAN) – WRITE-IN

WEIN, RICHARD J. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

KREISS-TOMKINS, JONATHAN S. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 36

Prediction: Shaw has had some problems, like resigning from the Ketchikan School Board after a recall effort was underway. Damn. Hard Ortiz. Go Ketchikan High School! 

ORTIZ, DANIEL H. “DAN” (UNDECLARED) – NOMINATING PETITION

SHAW, TREVOR A. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 37

Prediction: People like William Weatherby are why the term ‘Loose Unit’ exists. We are going with the Speaker. Hard Edgmon. 

WEATHERBY, WILLIAM W. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

EDGMON, BRYCE E. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 38

Prediction: Hard Zulkosky

DEACON, DARREN M. (REPUBLICAN) ALASKA REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE

ZULKOSKY, TIFFANY (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 39

Prediction: Has anyone seen Representative Neal Foster? Neal, are you ok? Good thing he is running unopposed. Congrats, Neal! 

FOSTER, NEAL W. (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE


HOUSE 40

Prediction: We are big fans of Representative Lincoln. He’s a super nice guy. Hard Lincoln

MACK, LEANNA R. (NONPARTISAN) – NOMINATING PETITION

SAVOK, PATRICK G. (NONPARTISAN) – NOMINATING PETITION

LINCOLN, JOHN “AGNAQLUK” (DEMOCRAT) ALASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE

 

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Checkmate

So the house maintains the Dem lead coalition majority. Are there any more GOP candidates who will join the coalition?