Today is the 2024 Alaska general election! Landmine staff looked at all 52 races (the presidential race, the U.S. House race, and the 50 legislative races) as well as the two ballot initiatives. Eleven legislative incumbents are running unopposed. This is the second election to use the open primary and ranked choice voting after Alaskans narrowly approved that new system in 2020. Ballot Measure 2 aims to repeal that system. 

Because the majority of legislative races only have one or two candidates – and some candidates in three way races will win on the first round – we will have a good idea who many of the winners in legislative races will be tonight. For the races where a candidate does not get 50% plus one on the first round, the Division of Elections will retabulate votes on November 20. 

Below are our thoughts and predictions. After reading, let us know your thoughts and why you agree or disagree in the comments section.

Don’t forget to come to our Election Central event tonight at the Egan Center! If you can’t make it in person, we will be streaming our panel live on Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter. Jeff Landfield will be joined by four great panelists: former U.S. Senator Mark Begich, former Representative Charisse Millett, political consultant Matt Shuckerow, and Fairbanks politico Mindy O’Neall. We will be providing results, analysis, live shots of campaign parties, candidate interviews.

2024 Alaska General Election

US PRESIDENT /US VICE PRESIDENT

We all know Donald Trump is winning Alaska. 

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE

This is a tough race to predict. After Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom (R – Alaska) withdrew after the primary, it essentially became a heads-up match between Representative Mary Peltola (D – Alaska) and Republican Nick Begich. Will the votes from incarcerated Democrat Eric Hafner and Alaska Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe be enough to prevent Peltola or Begich from winning outright? Probably. Two years ago Peltola had no record, and Begich was competing with Sarah Palin for votes. That dynamic is not in play this year. With the high turnout due to the presidential race, and the 2-1 advantage Republicans hold over Democrats in Alaska, we are going with lean Begich for the upset on this one.     

Peltola, Mary (Registered Democrat)

Begich, Nick (Registered Republican)

Howe, John Wayne (Registered Alaska Independence Party)

Hafner, Eric (Registered Democrat)

BALLOT MEASURE 1 (An initiative to increase Alaska’s minimum wage, provide workers with paid sick leave, and protect workers from practices that violate their constitutional rights.)

This one has kind of flown under the radar. In 2014, Alaskans passed a minimum wage increase by ballot initiative 69.35% to 30.65%. However, that initiative did not include provisions relating to paid sick leave and or “gag” rule on employers that some in the business community have campaigned against. Out of state interests funded the initiative and there has been little opposition. It should pass. 

BALLOT MEASURE 2 (An Act to get rid of the Open Primary System and Ranked-Choice General Election.)

This is the big one. Many conservatives hate the new voting system, and have been vocal about it. But the no side has spent more than $10 million opposing the repeal. While it will probably be close, we predict the no side will prevail.  

SENATE DISTRICT B

He’s once again running unopposed. Juneau must really like him. Congrats, Jesse!

Kiehl, Jesse (Registered Democrat)

SENATE DISTRICT D

Representative Ben Carpenter (R – Nikiski) is attempting to unseat Senator Jesse Bjorkman (R – Nikiski). Bjorkman is vulnerable in the conservative Kenai Peninsula after joining with Democrats in the Senate majority and voting to override Governor Mike Dunleavy’s (R – Alaska) veto of SB 140. Plus, Tina Wegener is a plant running as a Democrat with the intent to harm Bjorkman. But Carpenter has been under attack for introducing a bill with a sales tax and Bjorkman has a lot of support from establishment types on the Kenai. As much as we would like to see the extremely arrogant know-it-all Jesse Bjorkman lose, odds are he probably pulls it off. 

Bjorkman, Jesse (Registered Republican)

Carpenter, Ben (Registered Republican)

Wegener, Tina (Registered Democrat)

SENATE DISTRICT F

While Senator James Kaufman (R – Anchorage) got a scare in the primary with how many votes Democrat Janice Park received, we are going with Kaufman. This is South Anchorage after all. 

Kaufman, James (Registered Republican)

Park, Janice (Registered Democrat)

Borbridge, Harold (Registered Republican)

SENATE DISTRICT H

Senator Matt Claman (D – Anchorage) is very popular and a fundraising machine. He will easily win re-election.  

Claman, Matt (Registered Democrat)

Vazquez, Liz (Registered Republican)

SENATE DISTRICT J

We are still not even sure Cheronda Smith is a real person. Senator Forrest Dunbar (D – Anchorage) will easily win re-election. He’s even been helping Democrats on Fairbanks!

Dunbar, Forrest (Registered Democrat)

Smith, Cheronda (Registered Undeclared)

SENATE DISTRICT L

This is one of the hottest legislative races. After easily defeating former Republican Representative Ken McCarty in 2022 for the Senate seat, Senator Kelly Merrick (R – Eagle River) is in a real race this year. Republican Jared Goecker nearly tied Merrick in the primary, and the two other Republicans in the race withdrew after. Merrick has been criticized for joining with Democrats in the Senate majority and for taking $10,000 from Anchorage attorney Robin Brena. Goecker has been campaigning hard since summer. Democrat Lee Hammermeister is also going to harm Merrick. All that combined, we are going with lean Goecker for the upset. 

Merrick, Kelly (Registered Republican)

Goecker, Jared (Registered Republican)

Hammermeister, Lee (Registered Democrat)

SENATE DISTRICT N

This is a tough one. Senator David Wilson (R – Wasilla) got the most votes in the primary, but Republicans Rob Yundt and Stephen Wright got neatly 60% of the vote combined. Yundt did not campaign before the primary but has been campaigning hard for the general. He is also a former member of the Mat-Su Borough Assembly. Wilson has managed to keep his seat since being elected in 2016, but joining with Democrats to form the Senate majority is not popular in the conservative Mat-Su. This race will likely be decided using ranked choice voting. While it’s probably going to be close, we give a small edge to Yundt. 

Wilson, David (Registered Republican)

Wright, Stephen (Registered Republican)

Yundt, Robert (Registered Republican)

SENATE DISTRICT P

Combined, these two have raised over $400,000! While Senator Scott Kawasaki (D – Fairbanks) has managed to beat some serious Republican challengers over the years, Leslie Hajdukovich is on another level. She’s basically Fairbanks royalty. Plus, after redistricting Kawasaki was moved into the presidential cycle, which hurts him. The district voted for Trump by 12% in 2020 and Dunleavy/ Pierce by 8.5% in 2022. While Kawasaki is known to be a prolific campaigner, we are going with Hajdukovich. 

Kawasaki, Scott (Registered Democrat)

Hajdukovich, Leslie (Registered Republican)

SENATE DISTRICT R

This is the seat Senator Click Bishop (R – Fairbanks) is not seeking re-election for. While independent Savannah Fletcher has raised an impressive amount of money and is the president of the Fairbanks North Star Borough Assembly, we just don’t see her beating Representative Mike Cronk (R – Tok). It’s a presidential cycle, he has represented half the district since 2021, and he is the quintessential Alaskan. 

Cronk, Mike (Registered Republican)

Fletcher, Savannah (Registered Undeclared)

Williams, Robert “Bert” (Registered Alaska Independence Party)

SENATE DISTRICT T

Senator Donny Olson (D – Golovin) is running unopposed. Congrats, Donny!

Olson, Donald C. “Donny”

HOUSE DISTRICT 01

This is the seat Representative Dan Ortiz (I – Ketchikan) is not seeking re-election for. Republican Jeremy Bynum ran against Ortiz in 2022. He did very well in the primary, and independents Agnes Moran and Grant Echohawk are competing for the same votes. We are going with Bynum.  

Bynum, Jeremy (Registered Republican)

Echohawk, Grant (Registered Nonpartisan)

Moran, Agnes (Registered Nonpartisan)

HOUSE DISTRICT 02

Representative Rebecca Himschoot (I – Sitka) is unopposed. Congrats, Rebecca! 

Himschoot, Rebecca (Nonpartisan)

HOUSE DISTRICT 03

Representative Andi Story (D – Juneau) is unopposed. Congrats, Andi!

Story, Andrea “Andi” (Registered Democrat)

HOUSE DISTRICT 04

Representative Sara Hannan (D – Juneau) is, unfortunately, unopposed. 

Hannan, Sara (Registered Democrat) 

HOUSE DISTRICT 05

Representative Louise Stutes (R – Kodiak) will definitely be going back to Juneau. Many cribbage games await!

Stutes, Louise (Registered Republican) 

Radner, Leighton (Registered Libertarian) 

HOUSE DISTRICT 06

While independent Brent Johnson, a member of the Kenai Peninsula Borough Assembly, has run a good campaign and is well-known on the Kenai, this is a presidential election year. Representative Sarah Vance (R – Homer) is a popular conservative who has represented the area since 2019. We are going with Vance.

Vance, Sarah L. (Registered Republican) 

Johnson, Brent (Registered Nonpartisan)

Slaughter, Dawson (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 07

This is a rematch from 2022. We correctly predicated that Representative Justin Ruffridge (R – Soldotna) would unseat former Representative Ron Gillham in 2022. He will beat him again in 2024. 

Gillham, Ronald “Ron” (Registered Republican)

Ruffridge, Justin (Registered Republican) 

HOUSE DISTRICT 08

This is the seat Ben Carpenter is vacating to run for the Senate seat. 

We don’t have a ton of insight into this one. Bill Elam is a member of the Kenai Peninsula Borough Assembly but John Hillyer is a retired general. We are calling this one a toss-up. And in the end, it doesn’t matter who wins as they will both caucus with Republicans.  

Elam, Bill (Registered Republican) 

Hillyer, John (Registered Republican) 

HOUSE DISTRICT 09

This is the seat Representative Laddie Shaw (R – Anchorage) is not seeking re-election for.

Republican Lucy Bauer should win this race as it’s South Anchorage and she’s raised a lot of money, much from herself. But independent Ky Holland has also raised a lot of money and has been campaigning hard. Neither are very well known. This one could be close but we are going lean Lucy. 

Bauer, Lucy (Registered Republican) 

Holland, Ky (Registered Nonpartisan) 

HOUSE DISTRICT 10

After former Representative Chuck Kopp’s stellar performance in the primary, Representative Craig Johnson (R – Anchorage) better be all packed up.  

Johnson, Craig (Registered Republican) 

Kopp, Charles “Chuck” (Registered Republican) 

HOUSE DISTRICT 11

This is another rematch from 2022, but this time there is not a second Republican. While both have raised money and campaigned hard, we are going with Representative Julie Coulombe (R – Anchorage) winning re-election, but it could be close. 

Coulombe, Julie (Registered Republican)

Featherly, Walter (Registered Nonpartisan)

HOUSE DISTRICT 12

Easy one. Representative Calvin Schrage (I – Anchorage) will easily beat this Loose Unit!

Schrage, Calvin (Registered Nonpartisan)

Lurtsema, Joseph “Joe” (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 13

Representative Andy Josephson (D – Anchorage) is well liked and has raised a ton of money. We are going with Andy.   

Josephson, Andy (Registered Democrat)

Gottshall, Heather (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 14

Representative Alyse Galvin (I – Anchorage) may as well be unopposed. 

Galvin, Alyse (Registered Nonpartisan) 

Kamdem, Harry Winner (Registered Democrat)

HOUSE DISTRICT 15

This is the seat Representative Tom McKay (R – Anchorage) is vacating to run for the Senate seat (he withdrew after the primary).  

While Democrat Denny Wells nearly beat Tom McKay in 2022, it’s a different race with former Republican Senator Mia Costello. She used to represent the area and has been working hard. Plus, Dustin Darden being on the ballot will hurt Wells. It’s a bad deal for Wells. We are going with Mia for the comeback. 

Wells, Denny (Registered Democrat)

Costello, Mia (Registered Republican)

Darden, Dustin (Registered Democrat)

HOUSE DISTRICT 16

This is the seat Representative Jennie Armstrong (D – Anchorage) is not seeking re-election for.

Nick Moe said he was withdrawing after the primary but did not file the paperwork correctly. Very loose. Democrat Carolyn Hall got this. Full disclosure, Hall is married to Scott Jensen, who is a 15% owner of the Landmine. Cue Chelsea Foster! 

Hall, Carolyn (Registered Democrat)

Moe, Nick (Registered Nonpartisan)

HOUSE DISTRICT 17

Representative Zack Fields (D – Anchorage) is unopposed. Congrats,Zack!

Fields, William Z. “Zack” (Registered Democrat)

HOUSE DISTRICT 18

This is a rematch from 2022. While Republican David Nelson had a good shot to win his seat back due to the military vote, his campaign and fundraising have been lackluster. Representative Cliff Groh (D – Anchorage) has raised a ton of money and has been campaigning hard. We are going with Groh, but the base vote could result in this being a close race. 

Groh, Cliff (Registered Democrat) 

Nelson, David (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 19

Easy one. Representative Genevieve Mina (D -Anchorage) got this.  

Anderson, Kaylee Registered Republican)

Mina, Genevieve (Registered Democrat) 

Wyatt, Russell (Registered Undeclared)

HOUSE DISTRICT 20

Another easy one. Imagine Juneau without Representative Andrew Gray (D – Anchorage)!

Gray, Andrew (Registered Democrat)

Kohlhaas, Scott (Registered Libertarian)

HOUSE DISTRICT 21

Representative Donna Mears (D – Anchorage) should have no problem winning re-election. 

Mears, Donna (Registered Democrat)

Sims, Aimée (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 22

This is a big rematch from 2022. Representative Stanley Wright (R – Anchorage) narrowly defeated Democrat Ted Eischeid in 2022. This was his race to lose, but Wright did not campaign or fundraise much this summer. He only started in the fall. Eischeid, on the other hand, has been raising money and campaigning hard. While it will be close, we are going lean Eischeid for the upset. 

Eischeid, Ted (Registered Democrat)

Wright, Stanley (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 23

Another easy one. Like Andrew Gray, imagine Juneau without Representative Jamie Allard (R – Eagle River)! 

Allard, Jamie (Registered Republican) 

Arlington, Jim (Registered Democrat)

HOUSE DISTRICT 24

Representative Dan Saddler (R – Eagle River) is unopposed. Congrats, Dan!

Saddler, Dan (Registered Republican) 

HOUSE DISTRICT 25

Representative DeLena Johnson (R – Palmer) is unopposed. Congrats, DeLena!

Johnson, DeLena (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 26

Speaker Cathy Tilton (R – Wasilla) is unopposed. Congrats, Madame Speaker!

Tilton, Cathy (Registered Republican) 

HOUSE DISTRICT 27

Representative David Eastman (R – Wasilla) has some next level staying power. And Republican Jubilee Underwood wasted a bunch of her campaign money this summer with political hustler Joseph Lurtsema. While a lot of Republican are trying to defeat Eastman, it ain’t gonna happen this year. 

Eastman, David (Registered Republican) 

Underwood, Jubilee (Registered Republican) 

HOUSE DISTRICT 28

This is the seat Representative Jesse Sumner (R – Wasilla) decided not to run for after getting the most votes in the primary. 

While this race will likely go to the ranked choice tabulation, we are going with Republican Steve Menard. Juneau about to get really loose!

Menard, Steve (Registered Republican)

Moore, Elexie (Registered Republican)

Wright, Jessica (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 29

Representative George Rauscher (R – Sutton) is unopposed. Congrats, George!

Rauscher, George (Registered Republican) 

HOUSE DISTRICT 30

Representative Kevin McCabe (R – Big Lake) should have no problem beating perennial Republican candidate Doyle Holmes.   

McCabe, Kevin (Registered Republican)

Holmes, Doyle (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 31

This is another big rematch from 2022. Both of them have raised a lot of money and run good campaigns. And both are very likeable. The district narrowly went to Trump in 2020 by .9%. In 2022, then-Republican Representative Bart LeBon and Republican Kelly Nash garnered 50.5% of the vote in a three way race against Representative Maxine Dibert (D – Fairbanks). However, following the ranked choice tabulation Dibert defeated LeBon by 11%. While we think Republican Bart LeBon has a slight edge over Representative Maxine Dibert (D – Fairbanks), we are calling this one a toss-up.

Dibert, Maxine (Registered Democrat) 

LeBon, Barton (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 32

Representative Will Stapp (R – Fairbanks) will easily win re-election. Take it easy on the cigarettes, Will!  

Damron, Gary (Registered Democrat)

Stapp, Will (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 33

Representative Mike Prax (R – North Pole) is once again unopposed. Congrats, Mike!

Prax, Glenn “Mike” (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 34

While this one might be closer than Representative Frank Tomaszewski (R – Fairbanks) would like, he’s got this. 

Tomaszewski, Frank (Registered Republican)

Cottle, Joy “Joy Beth” (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 35

Representative Ashley Carrick (D – Fairbanks) will easily win re-election. 

Carrick, Ashley (Registered Democrat) 

McNeill, Ruben Jr. (Registered Republican)

HOUSE DISTRICT 36

This is the seat Mike Cronk is vacating to run for the Senate seat. 

While this one will likely be decided using ranked choice voting, Republican Rebecca Schwanke should end up the winner. 

Schwanke, Rebecca (Registered Republican)

Kowalski, Brandon “Putuuqti” (Registered Democrat)

Goode, Pamela (Registered Republican)

Fields, James (Registered Libertarian)

HOUSE DISTRICT 37

Easy one for Representative Bryce Edgmon (I – Dillingham) 

Deacon, Darren 

Edgmon, Bryce (Undeclared)

HOUSE DISTRICT 38

After the poor showing in the primary, Representative CJ McCormick (D – Bethel) – who ran unopposed in 2022 – is in trouble. He’s also facing his ex-girlfriend, Democrat Victoria Sosa. That’s rough. We are going with Democrat Nellie Jimmie. 

McCormick, Conrad J. “C.J.” (Registered Democrat)

Jimmie, Nellie “Unangiq” (Registered Democrat)

Keppel, Willy (Registered Veterans Party of Alaska)

Sosa, Victoria (Registered Democrat)

HOUSE DISTRICT 39

This is a rematch from 2020 and 2022. While AIP candidate Tyler Ivanoff got closer in 2020 than Representative Neal Foster (D – Nome) liked, Foster has since gone into full campaign mode, posting videos of him flying all over the district. He’s got this. 

Foster, Neal (Registered Democrat) 

Ivanoff, Tyler (Registered AK Independence)

HOUSE DISTRICT 40

This is a tough one to call. Representative Thomas Baker (I – Kotzebue) – who Governor Mike Dunleavy (R – Alaska) appointed to the seat last year – is done, the winner is hard to call. Democrat Robyn Burke has raised a lot of money and has been campaigning hard. Democrat Saima Chase did not raise much money but basically tied with Burke in the primary. There are also regional considerations. Baker and Chase are from Kotzebue, while Burke is from Barrow. While this race will definitely be close, either Burke or Chase will win. The question is which one. We are calling this one a toss-up between Burke and Chase.  

Baker, Thomas “Ikaaq” (Registered Undeclared) 

Burke, Robyn “Niayuq” (Registered Democrat) 

Chase, Saima “Ikrik” (Registered Democrat)