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We Build Alaska

Landmine Staff 2022 general election predictions

Today is the 2022 Alaska general election! Landmine staff looked at all 62 races (the three statewide races plus the 59 legislative races) as well as the constitutional convention question. The new open primary and ranked choice voting have seriously transformed the way we elect candidates in Alaska. Other than the special U.S. House race in August, this is the first election in Alaska to use ranked choice voting.

Because the majority of legislative races only have one or two candidates – and some candidates in three way races will win on the first round – we will have a good idea who many of the winners in legislative races will be tonight. For the races where a candidate does not get 50% plus one on the first round, the Division of Elections will retabulate votes on November 23 at 4 pm.

Below are our thoughts and predictions. After reading, let us know your thoughts and why you agree or disagree in the comments section.

Don’t forget to tune in to our live election coverage tonight. We will be streaming live on Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter. Jeff Landfield will be joined by four great panelists: former U.S. Senator Mark Begich, former Representative Charisse Millett, pollster Ivan Moore, and political consultant Matt Shuckerow. We will be providing results, analysis, live shots of campaign parties, candidate interviews.

2022 Alaska General Election

UNITED STATES SENATOR

This is the big race. Millions have been spent and raised by the candidates and PACs. While Kelly Tshibaka has the backing of the Alaska Republican Party and former President Donald Trump, Lisa Murkowski has once again put together a formidable coalition. Pat Chesbro performed poorly in the primary, and most of her second votes will go to Murkowski. Buzz Kelley suspended his campaign and endorsed Tshibaka, but he will get very few votes. We are going with Lisa Murkowski, though this one will probably be decided on November 23 when votes are retabulated.

Chesbro, Patricia R. (Registered Democrat)

Kelley, Buzz A. (Registered Republican) (Certified)

Murkowski, Lisa (Registered Republican)

Tshibaka, Kelly C. (Registered Republican)


UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE

Mary Peltola had a huge win in August when she won the special election to replace the late Don Young. Since, she has raised millions and have a major momentum surge. Sarah Palin and Nick Begich’s campaigns have been lackluster since August, and they are competing for the same votes. Thirty percent of Begich voters in the special election chose Peltola second instead of Palin. We are going with Mary Peltola. Look for her to start in the high 40s on the first round.

Begich, Nick (Registered Republican)

Bye, Chris (Registered Libertarian) (Certified)

Palin, Sarah (Registered Republican)

Peltola, Mary S. (Registered Democrat)

Sweeney, Tara M. (Registered Republican) Withdrawn


GOVERNOR / LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

The last time an incumbent governor was re-elected in Alaska was Democrat Tony Knowles in 1998. The last time a Republican governor was re-elected in Alaska was Jay Hammond in 1978. While the historical odds are against Mike Dunleavy getting re-elected, we are going with Big Mike. Bill Walker and Les Gara – like Palin and Begich – are competing for the same votes. Dunleavy effectively has no conservative opposition, and the few votes Charlie Pierce will get will recycle to Dunleavy. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year benefited Alaska, and Dunleavy, with high oil prices that led to a large dividend. Dunleavy will start in the mid to high 40s and should pull it off in the second or third round.

Dunleavy, Mike (Registered Republican) / Dahlstrom, Nancy (Registered Republican)

Gara, Les (Registered Democrat) / Cook, Jessica A. (Registered Democrat)

Pierce, Charlie (Registered Republican) / Grunwald, Edie (Registered Republican)

Walker, Bill (Nonpartisan) / Drygas, Heidi (Nonpartisan)


BALLOT MEASURE 1 (CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION QUESTION)

This question is on the ballot every ten years. While this may have been the year for it to pass, the money and campaign opposing it have been strong. We predict this will fail, but it will probably get more yes votes than it has historically.


SENATE DISTRICT A

We originally missed this one. Sorry, Bert! But we knew he was going to win.

Sheldon, Mike (Registered Republican)

Stedman, Bert K. (Registered Republican)


SENATE DISTRICT B

He’s the only senator who is unopposed. Congrats, Jesse!

Kiehl, Jesse (Registered Democrat)


SENATE DISTRICT C

If the primary is any indicator of this race, Gary Stevens should lock this up in the first round.

Jones, Walter H. (Registered Republican)

Smith, Heath (Registered Republican)

Stevens, Gary (Registered Republican)


SENATE DISTRICT D

This is a big race. It’s open because Senator Peter Micciche (R – Soldotna) is not running for re-election. We are going lean Tuckerman Babcock because if he does not win on the first round, the Andy Cizek votes could get Jesse Bjorkman over the top.

Babcock, Tuckerman (Registered Republican)

Bjorkman, Jesse J. (Registered Republican)

Cizek, Andy (Nonpartisan)


SENATE DISTRICT E

This one will definitely go to a second round as all three candidates each got around a third in the primary, with Cathy Giessel getting the most votes. Roger Holland started campaigning late while Cathy Giessel has been working hard for a while. The vast majority of Roselynn Cacy and Roger Holland second choice votes will recycle to Giessel. We are going with Cathy Giessel returning to Juneau.

Cacy, Roselynn (Registered Democrat)

Giessel, Cathy (Registered Republican)

Holland, Roger (Registered Republican)


SENATE DISTRICT F

This is an open seat because Senator Josh Revak (R – Anchorage) is not seeking re-election. It’s South Anchorage. Hard James Kaufman on this one.

Kaufman, James D. (Registered Republican)

Park, Janice L. (Registered Democrat)


SENATE DISTRICT G

This is an easy one to call for Elvi Gray-Jackson. She’s a fierce campaigner and Marcus Sanders has hardly campaigned at all.

Gray-Jackson, Elvi (Registered Democrat)

Sanders, Marcus D. (Registered Republican)


SENATE DISTRICT H

This is one of the biggest legislative races. Matt Claman had a strong primary turnout and has raised an incredible amount of money. Mia Costello’s run to the right does not help her in West Anchorage, where a lot of moderate Republicans live. We are going with Claman.

Claman, Matt (Registered Democrat)

Costello, Mia (Registered Republican)


SENATE DISTRICT I

Löki Tobin, a former staffer to Senator Tom Begich (D – Anchorage), was handpicked by Begich – who is not seeking re-election. She will easily win this seat.

Herndon, Heather (Undeclared)

Tobin, Löki G. (Registered Democrat)


SENATE DISTRICT J

This is an open seat due to redistricting. Forrest Dunbar got 49.38% in the primary – more than three times what Geran Tarr got. Forrest Dunbar is headed to Juneau, which will leave a vacancy in his Anchorage Assembly seat.

Cason, Drew (Registered Democrat) Withdrawn

Dunbar, Forrest (Registered Democrat)

Satterfield, Andrew E. (Registered Republican)

Tarr, Geran (Registered Democrat)


SENATE DISTRICT K

Easy one. Bill Will got this.

Cunningham, John W. (Registered Republican)

Wielechowski, Bill (Registered Democrat)


SENATE DISTRICT L

Both Eagle River representatives are running for this seat, which Senator Lora Reinbold (R – Eagle River) is not seeking re-election for. Kelly Merrick got over 53% in the primary. The two other candidates withdrew after the primary. Merrick has run a strong campaign while Ken McCarty has run a rather bizarre one. We are going with Kelly Merrick.

McCarty, Ken (Registered Republican)

Merrick, Kelly R. (Registered Republican)

Trotter, Clayton (Registered Republican) Withdrawn 

Wright, Joe (Registered Republican) Withdrawn 


SENATE DISTRICT M

Easy one. Shelley’s got this.

Cooper, Jim (Registered Democrat)

Hughes, Shelley (Registered Republican)


SENATE DISTRICT N

This was a weird primary result. David Wilson got 46.36% while the other two split the remainder. Even so, We are going with Wilson, who should win this seat in the second round.

Clayton, Scott D. (Registered Republican)

Wilson, David S. (Registered Republican)

Wright, Stephen (Registered Republican)


SENATE DISTRICT O

This is a big one! We predict Doug Massie is going to oust Mike Shower from the Senate. Get ready for Mike to get very loose!

Massie, Doug A. (Registered Republican)

Shower, Michael K. (Registered Republican)


SENATE DISTRICT P

This is another big race. Scott Kawasaki’s district had got more conservative but he’s a strong campaigner. Jim Matherly, a former Fairbanks mayor, is well-known but has not campaigned super hard. Alex Jafre is not a serious candidate but will get some votes, and he is telling people to rank Kawasaki second. We are going lean Kawasaki.

Jafre, Alex N. (Registered Republican)

Kawasaki, Scott (Registered Democrat)

Matherly, Jim (Registered Republican)


SENATE DISTRICT Q

Easy one. Robb Myers got this.

Bennett, John D. (Nonpartisan)

Myers, Robert H. Jr. (Registered Republican)

Serkov, Arthur P. (Registered AK Independence)


SENATE DISTRICT R

Click Bishop’s strong primary performance means he should easily win this on the first round.

Bishop, Click (Registered Republican)

Verhagen, Elijah M. (Registered Republican)

Williams, Robert “Bert” (Registered AK Independence)


SENATE DISTRICT S

Lyman the Legend has been in the Legislature since the 1980s! He’s got this once again.

Hoffman, Lyman F. (Registered Democrat)

Keppel, Willy (Registered Veterans Of Ak)


HOUSE DISTRICT 01

While Jeremy Bynum is trying his best, we are going with Dan Ortiz.

Bynum, Jeremy T. (Registered Republican)

Meggitt, Shevaun A. (Nonpartisan) Withdrawn

Ortiz, Daniel H. “Dan” (Nonpartisan)


HOUSE DISTRICT 02

This is an open seat because Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D – Sitka) is not seeking re-election. We are going with Himschoot.

Himschoot, Rebecca (Nonpartisan)

Skaflestad, Kenny (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 03

Unopposed. Congrats!

Story, Andrea “Andi” (Registered Democrat)


HOUSE DISTRICT 04

Easy one. Hannan got this.

Hannan, Sara (Registered Democrat) 

Harmon, Darrell J. (Undeclared)


HOUSE DISTRICT 05

Speaker Louise Stutes will be going back to Juneau, but not as speaker.

Stutes, Louise B. (Registered Republican) 

Vincent, Benjamin T. (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 06

While Louie Flora has run a strong campaign, Ginger Bryant being in the race hurts him. And Sarah Vance had a strong primary performance. We are going with Vance.

Bryant, Ginger (Nonpartisan)

Flora, Louis A. “Louie” (Nonpartisan)

Vance, Sarah L. (Registered Republican) 


HOUSE DISTRICT 07

We predict Justin Ruffridge is going to oust Ron Gillham from the House.

Gillham, Ronald D. “Ron” (Registered Republican)

Ruffridge, Justin (Registered Republican) 


HOUSE DISTRICT 08

Unopposed. Congrats!

Carpenter, Ben (Registered Republican) 


HOUSE DISTRICT 09

It’s South Anchorage and Laddie Shaw is well liked. We are going with Laddie.

Schaff, David L. (Registered Democrat)

Shaw, Laddie H. (Registered Republican) 


HOUSE DISTRICT 10

This is an open seat due to redistricting. While Caroline Storm has been working hard, it’s South Anchorage and Craig Johnson previously served in the House. We are going with Johnson.

Insalaco, Mikel E. (Registered Libertarian)

Johnson, Craig W. (Registered Republican) 

Levi, Sue (Registered Democrat) Withdrawn

Storm, Caroline (Registered Democrat)


HOUSE DISTRICT 11

This is an open seat because Representative James Kaufman (R – Anchorage) is running for the Senate seat. While it may be close, we are going with Julie Coulombe.

Bieling, Ross P. (Registered Republican)

Coulombe, Julie (Registered Republican)

Featherly, Walter T. (Nonpartisan)


HOUSE DISTRICT 12

Easy one. Calvin Schrage is going back to Juneau.

McDonald, Jay (Registered Republican)

Schrage, Calvin R. (Nonpartisan)


HOUSE DISTRICT 13

This is one of the biggest House races. Andy Josephson only retained a small portion of his old district. Kathy Henslee has been on the ballot twice in the last two years (2020 House race, 2021 Assembly race) but lost both times. Both have raised money and run strong campaigns. Because Josephson is the incumbent, and Henslee has lost twice, we are going lean Andy on this one.

Henslee, Katherine J. “Kathy” (Registered Republican)

Huit, Timothy R. (Registered AK Independence) Withdrawn

Josephson, Andy (Registered Democrat)


HOUSE DISTRICT 14

Alyse has finally made it!

Danger, Nicholas (Registered Republican)

Galvin, Alyse S. (Nonpartisan) 


HOUSE DISTRICT 15

Denny Wells has been working hard but it is South Anchorage. We are going with Tom McKay, but probably in the second round.

Eibeck, David (Registered Republican)

McKay, Thomas W. “Tom” (Registered Republican)

Wells, Denny (Registered Democrat)


HOUSE DISTRICT 16

Jennie Armstrong will win this one but the ongoing lawsuit about her residency could make this one really interesting!

Armstrong, Jennifer “Jennie” (Registered Democrat) 

Beckes, Richard “Rick” (Registered AK Constitution) Withdrawn

McKinney, Joel M. (Registered Republican) Withdrawn

Vazquez, Liz (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 17

Two Democratic incumbents are facing off for this Downtown Anchorage seat because of redistricting. We are going with Zack.

Drummond, Harriet A. (Registered Democrat)

Fields, William Z. “Zack” (Registered Democrat)


HOUSE DISTRICT 18

If Lyn Franks was not in the race, Cliff Groh would easily win. He has raised almost $200,000 and has run a very strong campaign. We are going with Cliff ousting David Nelson from the House, but probably on the second round.

Franks, Lyn D. (Registered Democrat)

Groh, Cliff (Registered Democrat) 

Nelson, David (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 19

This is an open seat because Representative Geran Tarr (D – Anchorage) is running for the Senate seat. This is another easy one. Genevieve Mina got this.

Mina, Genevieve G. (Registered Democrat) 

Wyatt, Russell O. (Registered Democrat)


HOUSE DISTRICT 20

This is an open seat because Representative Ivy Spohnholz (D – Anchorage) is not seeking re-election. Andrew Gray had a strong primary performance and is endorsed by Spohnholz. We are going with Andrew.

Bauer, Paul A. (Registered Republican)

Gray, Andrew T. (Registered Democrat)

Harary, Jordan I. (Registered Republican)

Kohlhaas, Scott A. (Registered Libertarian)


HOUSE DISTRICT 21

This is a tough one. It’s a Democratic seat but is open because Representative Liz Snyder (D – Anchorage) decided not to run at the last minute. Forrest Wolfe has been working very hard at the doors while Donna Mears raised a lot of money. We are calling this one a toss-up.

Mears, Donna C. (Registered Democrat)

Sharrock, Patrick I. “Ian” (Nonpartisan) Withdrawn

Wolfe, Forrest M. (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 22

This is an open seat due to redistricting. This is another tough one. This race has gotten nasty in the last few weeks. Both candidates are working hard and running strong campaigns. Stanley Wright and Lisa Simpson got a combined 57% in the primary. With Simpson’s withdrawal, it looks good for Wright. But it is East Anchorage and Ted Eischeid has been going hard. We are also calling this one a toss up.

Eischeid, Ted J. (Registered Democrat)

Simpson, Lisa (Registered Republican) Withdrawn

Wright, Stanley A. (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 23

This is another open seat due to redistricting. It’s an easy call for Jamie Allard, meaning another vacancy on the Anchorage Assembly. Juneau is going to be so lit with Allard.

Allard, Jamie (Registered Republican) 

Branson, Roger L. (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 24

This is an open seat because Merrick and McCarty are running for the Senate seat. While Sharon Jackson was a recent representative, she was appointed in 2018 and then defeated in 2020. We are going with Dan Saddler retuning to Juneau.

Jackson, Sharon (Registered Republican)

Nelson, Daryl W. (Registered Democrat)

Saddler, Dan (Registered Republican) 


HOUSE DISTRICT 25

Easy one for DeLena.

Johnson, DeLena M. (Registered Republican)

Wood, Lawrence D. (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 26

Another easy one for Cathy.

Stokes, Daniel L. (Registered Libertarian)

Tilton, Cathy L. (Registered Republican) 


HOUSE DISTRICT 27

David Eastman should win this one, possibly on the second round. But the ongoing court case challenging his eligibility because of his membership in the Oath Keepers means this one won’t be officially decided until December.

Carpenter, Brendan R. (Registered Republican)

Eastman, David (Registered Republican) 

Graham, Stuart R. “Stu” (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 28

Four Republicans are facing off for this open Valley seat. Jesse Sumner and Steve Menard each got 33% in the primary, while Rachel Allen and Jessica Wright split the rest. We think Menard has a ceiling, so we are going with Jesse Sumner, who currently serves on the Mat-Su Borough Assembly.

Allen, Rachel M. (Registered Republican)

Menard, Steve (Registered Republican)

Sumner, Jesse M. (Registered Republican)

Wright, Jessica (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 29

Easy one for George.

Haase, Elijah D. (Nonpartisan)

Rauscher, George (Registered Republican) 


HOUSE DISTRICT 30

Kevin McCabe should easily win this one, but probably in the second round.

Holmes, Doyle E. (Registered Republican)

McCabe, Kevin J. (Registered Republican)

Mindiola, L. Joy (Registered Democrat)


HOUSE DISTRICT 31

This is another big race. Bart LeBon won in 2018 by one vote and was then part of a House coalition. But after the 2020 election, he went with the Republican minority. This angered a lot of progressives who gave LeBon a pass in 2020. Kelly Nash is a far right Republican who is telling people not to rank LeBon second. Maxine Dibert has raised almost $100,000 compared to LeBon’s $42,000. Because of all these dynamics, we are going lean Maxine.

Dibert, Maxine L. (Registered Democrat) 

LeBon, Barton S. (Registered Republican)

Nash, Kelly (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 32

This is an open seat because Representative Steve Thompson (R – Fairbanks) is not seeking re-election. Will Stapp has this, but maybe in the second round.

Givens, Timothy W. (Registered Republican)

Lawrence, Van (Registered Democrat)

Stapp, Will B. (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 33

Unopposed. Congrats!

Prax, Glenn M. “Mike” (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 34

Redistricting put Grier Hopkins in a more conservative district. While he’s been working hard, Frank Tomaszewski is a beneficiary of the new map. Nate DeMars withdrew but not in time to get off the ballot. We are going with Tomaszewski ousting Hopkins.

DeMars, Nate (Registered Republican)

Hopkins, Grier H. (Registered Democrat)

Tomaszewski, Frank J. (Registered Republican)


HOUSE DISTRICT 35

This is an open seat because Representative Adam Wool (D – Fairbanks) is not seeking re-election. Tim Parker got more than 17% in the primary but withdrew as Ashley Carrick got over 41%. Carrick got this one.

Brown, Kieran C. (Registered AK Constitution)

Carrick, Ashley E. (Registered Democrat) 

McKinley, Kevin (Registered Republican)

McNeill, Ruben A. Jr. (Registered Republican)

Parker, Tim (Nonpartisan) Withdrawn


HOUSE DISTRICT 36

Easy one for Cronk.

Cronk, Mike (Registered Republican) 

Fowler, Angela K. “Fitch” (Registered Democrat)


HOUSE DISTRICT 37

Unopposed. Congrats!

Edgmon, Bryce (Undeclared)


HOUSE DISTRICT 38

C.J. McCormick is unopposed but is facing a write-in from Myron Naneng. While Naneng is well-known and working hard, write-ins are notoriously difficult. We are going with McCormick.

McCormick, Conrad J. “C.J.” (Registered Democrat)

Certified Write-In: Naneng, Myron P. Sr. (Nonpartisan)


HOUSE DISTRICT 39

This is a rematch from 2020. While Tyler Ivanoff got closer in 2020 than Neal Foster liked, Foster has since got religion on a full dividend. Foster’s got this.

Foster, Neal W. (Registered Democrat) 

Ivanoff, Tyler L. (Registered AK Independence)


HOUSE DISTRICT 40

Unopposed. Congrats!

Patkotak, Josiah B. “Aullaqsruaq” (Nonpartisan)

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John C.
22 days ago

Some astute analysis here of so many of these races, Jeff. Good job! You are correct, I believe, on two of the three statewide races, but the governor’s race could still have been declared a toss-up at this point. Why Lisa and not her Alaska Republicans-endorsed opponent? Tshibaka hit her ceiling in the primary. She cannot go above that. Enough of Alaska’s vast moderate middle will not vote for any candidate as far to the right as Tshibaka. Lisa’s coalition of moderate Republicans, Democrats with nowhere to go (and petrified about Tshibaka squeaking through), and moderate independents should come through.… Read more »

James
21 days ago

With 95% of precincts reporting, the results are in: Jeff Landfield gets no pussy!