If you attended Governor Mike Dunleavy’s (R – Alaska) Sustainable Energy Conference last week with no prior background or knowledge of Alaska, you might think Alaska was on the precipice of a major energy renaissance – and that the long-awaited 807-mile gasline from the North Slope will soon be built.

Three of President Donald Trump’s key officials – Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin – attended the conference, touting Alaska’s strategic and economic importance. In January, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at “unleashing Alaska’s extraordinary resource potential.”

At first glance, things looks promising. But for those familiar with Alaska’s history, bold promises like these are nothing new.

In his 2014 State of the State address, Governor Sean Parnell spoke at length about Alaska LNG, asking the Legislature to support the “pre-FEED” phase – referring to the period before front-end engineering and design (FEED). He stated, “Recently we made historic progress on Alaska’s gasline. For the first time, all the necessary parties have aligned to make the Alaska gasline project go.” But he added a caveat: if the large diameter line didn’t pencil out, an in-state option to deliver gas to Alaskans would serve as a backup.

Ten months later, Parnell was defeated by independent Bill Walker, a longtime proponent of the gasline who had different ideas. Two years into Walker’s term, Donald Trump was elected president. Walker found a friend in the White House who wanted to help Alaska. In November 2017, Walker joined President Trump on trade mission to China where they signed a deal with President Xi for the Chinese to invest in an Alaska gasline. This Anchorage Daily News Article, “Gov. Walker, joining Trump trade mission to China, sees ‘most significant opportunity’ for Alaska gas,” again touted how “close” we were. But many Alaskans were uneasy about getting in bed with the Chinese.

As with Parnell in 2014, Walker’s momentum didn’t last – he was defeated in 2018 by Mike Dunleavy, who again took a different approach. Shortly after taking office, Dunleavy scrapped the deal with the Chinese. He campaigned on large Permanent Fund Dividends and small government – and spent his first year trying to reduce government to hand Alaskans large dividend checks. The strategy backfired, spawning a recall effort against him. Then came COVID, which in 2020 stopped the recall and almost everything else in Alaska. That November, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump.

Dunleavy, along with Senator Dan Sullivan (R – Alaska) aggressively criticized the Biden administration for its anti-development policies, specifically related to Alaska. It’s true the Trump administration was and is more supportive of Alaska’s resource development focused economy than the Biden administration. But the Biden administration wasn’t the boogey man so many Alaska politicians made it out to be. After much pressure, Biden approved ConocoPhillips’ large Willow project on the North Slope. And while they paused new LNG projects, the Alaska LNG project was largely unaffected having already received its permits.

In fact, Rahm Emanuel, who was then Biden’s ambassador to Japan, attended the Sustainable Energy Conference in 2023 and delivered the keynote address. Emanuel, a supporter of the gasline, worked closely with Sullivan and Dunleavy to advance the project. After an October 2022 summit, Emanuel said:

Today, the United States and Japan took a significant step forward in achieving energy security for both our countries by convening the “Alaska LNG Summit.”

I was pleased to join Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan and Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy; senior officials from the U.S. State Department including Senior Advisor for Energy Security Amos Hochstein; representatives from the Government of Japan, including the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), and the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC); and industry leaders from both countries to discuss how Alaska LNG can provide stable, sustainable, and affordable energy sources to Japan, including future possibilities for low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia production utilizing carbon capture and sequestration.

Now, back to last week. Despite the hype from Trump and Dunleavy, and the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation’s (AGDC) decision to bring on Glenfarne to head up the project, Alaska is no closer to a gasline deal.

In fact, the opposite is true. As I write this, Southcentral utilities are preparing to import LNG to meet the basic energy needs of Southcentral Alaska – where more than half of Alaska’s population resides. In May, Harvest Midstream sent a letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission asking for expedited approval to expand import capacity at the Kenai LNG terminal to meet Chugach Electric’s needs.

Furthermore, the current gasline effort lacks the two most critical components: customers and suppliers. Despite headline-grabbing announcements from Glenfarne, AGDC, and politicians, the project has yet to secure a single binding contract with a customer. No supply agreements have been signed either – and the three major producers, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, and Hilcorp, appear uninvolved and have remained notably silent. Crucially, none have pledged or committed to sell gas to the project.

Perhaps the single biggest factor responsible for Alaska’s energy failures is our refusal to invest in ourselves. In 2016, Governor Walker canceled the Susitna-Watana dam, a huge hydroelectric project that would have provided 600 megawatts of power. For comparison, Bradley Lake is 120 megawatts and provides 10-15% of the railbelt’s electrical demand. Had Susitna-Watana been built, Southcentral would not be experiencing today’s energy crisis. Cook Inlet gas would be providing heat, not electricity, and we would be benefitting from cheap hydropower electricity.

Alaska’s energy crisis is self-imposed. If we decided to invest in Susitna-Watana and the gasline, we would all be far better off. Instead, we always want someone else to pay, whether it be the federal government or oil companies. For some perspective, since 2019 Alaska has paid out more than $5 billion in dividends, nearly enough to build the Susitna-Watana dam.

We may be closer to a gasline now more than ever due to the war in Ukraine, Asian countries wanting to diversify their gas supplies, and the Trump administration doing everything they can to help. But too many of our leaders are obsessed with the dividend delusion and not wanting to invest in ourselves and take control of our own destiny.

We pay no state income or sales taxes, yet we demand dividends and state services. This has resulted in a perpetual “race to the bottom,” where our leaders do everything they can to reduce spending to pay dividends while state agencies struggle to carry out their functions and nothing gets built in Alaska.

If we really wanted to make the gasline happen, we could. But we would need to be willing to invest in it. We could suspend the dividend and invest that money and part of the Permanent Fund in the gasline. We could start paying taxes. The state could bond or borrow to invest in the gasline. We don’t need to pay for the entire thing. We just need to be willing to invest some money to improve the economics and show other investors that we are willing to have some skin in the game and be a true partner. But none of our leaders are talking about those things. They want someone else to pay.

It’s like we have been offered a brand-new luxury car for free. But instead of saying thank you, we say, “Wait, we need to pay for gas and insurance?”