Happy Easter! It’s finally April. I am back in Anchorage and it finally feels like the long and cold winter is coming to an end. I was in Sitka on Monday and Tuesday getting the full experience at the Alaska State Trooper Academy. It was a short week in Juneau as several legislators and staff went home for Easter. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R – Alaska) gave her annual speech to a joint session of the Legislature. The House Finance Committee moved the operating budget out of committee after adopting an amendment that perpetuates the dividend delusion. The price of Alaska North Slope Crude went up by $11/barrel to $115/barrel – the highest its been in nearly four years. And some more people filed to run for the Legislature. 

The Anchorage election concludes on Tuesday, April 7. There are six Assembly seats, two school board seats, and a variety of bond propositions on the ballot. We will be providing live coverage of the election on Tuesday night from our Anchorage studio! You can watch live on YouTube, Facebook, and X. I will be joined by Anchorage Assembly member Chris Constant and former Anchorage Assembly member Kevin Cross. We will be providing analysis, results, and interviews with candidates.   

House Finance moves budget with full PFD and $1.6 billion deficit

The following is an excerpt from this week’s edition of the Alaska Political Report. You can click here for more information about the Political Report. A subscription is $1,299/year per organization. Discounted pricing is available for non-profits and government entities. Our coverage of the budget starts with the governor’s proposed budget, and we track everything in detail through the entire process. If you have any questions or would like to subscribe, please email jeff@akpoliticalreport.com.

This week the House Finance Committee heard and deliberated amendments to the operating budget. Through their amendments, they made a net $2.45 billion Unrestricted General Funs (UGF) addition from the previous version of the bill.

The biggest add was adoption of a Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) payment following the legacy calculation included in statute. Assuming a bare bones capital budget, the changes made by the committee leaves a $1.6 billion deficit and draws over half the available balance in the Constitutional Budget Reserve (CBR).

PFD Complexities

The committee has faced challenges in determining a PFD amount in recent years. The problem is exacerbated due to the narrow committee divide: 6 majority and 5 minority. 

Two majority members, Nome Democrat Neal Foster and Toksook Bay Democrat Nellie Jimmie, favor a larger PFD, though Jimmie has backed off of that. None of the minority members have been willing to cross caucus lines to approve a PFD that fits within available revenues.

This year the committee adopted an amendment that funds a PFD under the statutory formula, approximately $3,900 per person. All minority members plus Foster, a finance co-chair, voted yes on the amendment.

However, the amount isn’t fully funded from the percent of market value draw (POMV) from the Permanent Fund. Instead, the budget directs that $1.5 billion of the $2.5 billion required will be sourced from the CBR. If that CBR vote fails, which it is likely to, the remaining PFD will be a 25/75 split from the POMV draw, $1 billion total or about $1,500 per person.

As-is, failing a CBR vote would leave the remaining budget about $100 million underwater – leaving no room for capital or oil volatility. It seems likely the split between UGF and CBR funding for the PFD will be amended on the House floor. Such an amendment could ensure that a CBR vote failure would only impact the PFD rather than the budget as a whole.

The committee also adopted an amendment to direct 50% of any surplus in FY2027 to be paid out as a supplement to the PFD in FY2028, up to $250 million. The other 50% of surplus is deposited into the statutory budget reserve, which replaces the explicit $50 million deposit in the previous version of the bill.

If you would like to see the rest of this section, as well as a comprehensive breakdown of the legislative candidates’ APOC reports, please consider subscribing to the Alaska Political Report. Email jeff@akpoliticalreport.com for a copy of the latest special report. 

Other Happenings 

Senator Murkowski gave her annual address to the Legislature on Tuesday (3/31/2026). You can watch it here.  

I was not in Juneau for her speech. I was in Sitka attending the Alaska State Trooper Academy for two days. It was quite an experience. Big thanks to the Troopers for letting me visit the academy and get a glimpse into their rigorous training. You can read all my visit here, “The Full Experience: Two days at the Alaska State Trooper Academy in Sitka.” 

ANS crude went up by more than 10% on April 2. The last time it was over $115/barrel was in June 2022. 

Two Republicans, including the very loose Willy Keppel, filed for the open Senate seat Senator Lyman Hoffman (D – Bethel) is retiring from. This makes three people in the race, not including Speaker Bryce Edgmon (I – Dillingham). Edgmon has less than two months to decide if he will run for the open Senate seat or his House seat. The filing deadline is June 1. 

Brent Johnson, a former Kenai Peninsula Borough Assembly president, filed to run for the House. Representative Sarah Vance (R – Homer) beat him by 3.5 points in 2024. Vance has still not declared whether she will run for her House seat or the open Senate seat Senate President Gary Stevens (R – Kodiak) is retiring from. 

Representative Nellie Jimmie (D -Tooksok Bay) picked up an opponent. 

This Week’s Loose Unit

This week’s designee includes too many people to name them all, but you will get the drift. This week’s Loose Unit are the members of the House that are obsessed with the stupid fucking dividend, also known as the dividend delusion. 

I was having a conversation yesterday with an acquittance in Anchorage. He’s not a politico but follows the Landmine. He told me, “So I heard the Legislature passed a full dividend. That’s good, my family could really use the money.”

I spent the next few minutes explaining to him why that is not the case. He got a bit confused when I tried to explain to him the mechanics of a Constitutional Budget Reserve (CBR) draw and how six members of the House Finance Committee are playing games. I went on to explain that the amount will be lowered by the full House when they fail the CBR vote, and ultimately when the House and Senate agree on what the conference committee does. 

He asked me what I thought the dividend would be. I said between $1,000 – $1,500. We then had a conversation I have had hundreds of times about what it would cost to pay a mega dividend and how it is beyond impractical and irresponsible.  

As I was talking with him I got angry that so many of our “leaders” know better but still continue to perpetrate the dividend delusion. They do this either because they will say anything to get re-elected or don’t appreciate how their games affect how the public views the dividend issue. Telling the truth or leading is sometimes hard. It’s easier to tell the lie. 

What these Loose Units do not seem to understand is that their stupid games send a message to the public: it’s possible to spend billions every year on mega dividends. It’s not, and they all know it. 

This issue is why our state has been stuck in neutral for ten years. We will never be able to move on our fix our problems until our leaders start telling the public and their constituents the truth about the cancer that is the Permanent Fund Dividend. 

If you have a nomination for this week’s Loose Unit, or if you have any political news, stories or gossip (or any old pics of politicians or public officials) please email me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com.