The half-way point of the legislative session is just days away. It was an eventful week in Juneau. Representative Nick Begich (R – Alaska) gave his annul address to the Legislature. A prop from a prominent House Democrat during Begich’s speech resulted in an attempted censure by House Republicans. Oil prices went on a roller coaster ride. The Senate unanimously passed the supplemental budget after reducing it by more than $130 million, but it ran into a roadblock in the House. The Spring Revenue Forecast was released by the Department of Revenue, forecasting a large windfall due to higher oil prices but also includes some interesting revenue projections. And Anchorage legislators were back home for the Anchorage Caucus on Saturday (3/14/2026) at the Wendy Williamson Auditorium. 

I am in Anchorage until Wednesday doing Anchorage Assembly debates. We did our first two today. You can watch them on the Alaska Landmine YouTube channel or Facebook page. There will be one tomorrow, two on Tuesday, and one on Wednesday. Thanks to our viewers and sponsors! 

A friendly message and reminder to all our readers. The Landmine is made possible by myself and a team of awesome Alaskans. I have been covering the legislative session in Juneau for the last seven years and am now here for my eighth session. We will be covering all the 2026 Alaska elections in-depth. If you enjoy the content we provide, please consider making a one time or recurring monthly donation. You can click here to donate. We have a system that makes it super easy. We would really appreciate it. And thanks to everyone who has been supportive. 

ICE Out on the House Floor 

When Representative Begich was giving his annual address to the Legislature, Representative Zack Fields (D – Anchorage), who sits in the front row, thought it either a good idea or amusing to send Begich a message. In violation of the rules, Fields displayed a small sign that said “ICE Out. I did not see it and several people I asked did not either. But it definitely triggered some of the Republicans.

The next day, the Republican House minority tried to censure Fields. This Landmine story provides more detail. Things really went off the rails. 

Representative Dan Saddler (R – Eagle River) spoke to the censure motion. In his speech, Saddler decried Fields and his sign and spoke against political theater while engaging in political theater. At one point Speaker Bryce Edgmon (I – Dillingham) corrected Saddler, telling him he could not see the sign and did not appreciate Saddler insinuating that he allowed it. 

Representative Chuck Kopp (R – Anchorage), the majority leader, made a motion to table the censure, saying Fields had already been admonished by his majority colleagues and had apologized (Fields definitely did not apologize when he spoke). The motion to table was approved 21-19 on caucus lines. 

Several hours later, after extensive debate about extending the disaster declaration for Typhoon Halong, the Republicans attempted to take the censure motion from the table. That vote failed 15-25, but it kicked off some loose activity on the House floor. Read the Landmine story linked above to see just how loose things got.

Supplemental budget in limbo after House again fails CBR vote

The following is an excerpt from this week’s edition of the Alaska Political Report. You can click here for more information about the Political Report. A subscription is $1,299/year per organization. Discounted pricing is available for non-profits and government entities. Our coverage of the budget starts with the governor’s proposed budget, and we track everything in detail through the entire process. If you have any questions or would like to subscribe, please email jeff@akpoliticalreport.com.

On March 11 the Senate took up House Bill 289, the supplemental budget. The bill was amended significantly on the floor. The finance co-chairs, Bethel Democrat Lyman Hoffman, Sitka Republican Bert Stedman, and Golovin Democrat Donny Olson, introduced an amendment to remove most of the supplemental requests from Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R-AK).

What remains are appropriations for state match in the highway and aviation federal programs, disaster support, wildfire suppression, and recapitalization of the Higher Education Investment Fund. The bill, and the draw from the Constitutional Budget Reserve (CBR), both passed the Senate unanimously. The House failed the CBR vote when they originally passed the bill in late February.

After the Senate’s amendment, the bill now totals $373.5 million Unrestricted General Funds (UGF), a $76.1 million reduction from the version that left the Senate Finance Committee. It’s expected that the removed items will be incorporated into the FY2027 operating or capital budget since they represent many mandatory costs of operating the state, like funding to pay doctors performing services for Medicaid and the cost of operating the state’s correctional institutions.

The most urgent item, restoring funding for highway maintenance match originally vetoed by the Governor, remains in the bill. If this funding isn’t approved soon, it will generate disruption in the state’s short construction season. That $70 million in state funding is required to accept $700 million in federal highway and aviation funding. 

The appropriations included in the bill would have been funded through a fixed draw from the CBR had it received the necessary votes from the House minority. The CBR draw included in this version of the bill was structured differently than previous versions. Prior versions included a CBR draw that covered the difference between state revenue and the total cost of both the supplementals as well as the FY2026 budget passed last year.

This version instead transfers $373.5 million from the CBR to the general fund to support just the items in the bill. The co-chairs are anticipating that the Spring Revenue Forecast, expected to be released on March 13, will be a large enough increase to cover the remaining items, but not enough to cover the $373.5 million included in this version of the bill. 

The House voted unanimously to concur with the Senate’s changes, however, the CBR vote fell eight votes short. Some members of the minority explained their vote by citing optimism over the new revenue forecast based on current oil futures. But it is unlikely the forecast will eliminate the need for a CBR draw. 

The CBR draw structure is more of a political tool than a financial one. Any surplus at the end of the fiscal year will sweep back into the CBR regardless of how the draw is structured. The direct funding would have reduced the likelihood that the Legislature will need to seek a second CBR vote when they move to address the rest of the supplemental appropriations.

The objection of the House minority is primarily because they do not want to lose the political leverage that comes with a three-quarter vote as the budget process continues. It remains unclear what concessions they are seeking. But what is clear is they are willing to gamble $770 million from this summer’s road construction season to preserve their leverage.

After the failure of the CBR vote, Anchorage Republican Rep. Chuck Kopp, the majority leader, moved to rescind action on the bill and return it to the rules committee. That vote passed on caucus lines. The House adjourned to 10:30 am on March 16. It’s not clear what will happen with the bill. The House majority won’t send it to the Governor without a CBR vote. They can only rescind action one time on a vote. 

We are watching things carefully and will provide updates as they become available. 

Other Happenings 

The Department of Revenue (DOR) released the Spring Revenue Forecast. The revenue adjustment came in significantly higher than anticipated. It increases the prior forecast by $545 million in FY2026 and $510 million in FY2027. Most of this is due to higher oil prices. The forecast is based on a price of $91.09 per barrel for the rest of FY2026 and an average of $75 for FY2027. The update is enough to eliminate the current year deficit. But it is also based on some interesting assumptions: 

• Corporate income tax collected from non-petroleum companies operating in Alaska is projected to increase by $105 million (49%) from the fall forecast
• Investment revenue is expected to come in $10.2 million (10%) higher than previously forecast
• Mining taxes are projected to increase by $8.1 million (19%)

Look for the finance committees to grill officials from the Dunleavy administration this week on those assumptions.

ANS crude has been on a real roller coaster. It was $81 on March 5, then $95 on March 9, then down to $92 on March 10, and then up to $104 on March 12. 

Anchorage Caucus took place yesterday at the Wendy Williamson. I did not hear about it until Friday, meaning they did a bad job of promoting it. The crowd was the usual suspects of teachers and union members, as well as Anchorage School Board members and Anchorage Assembly candidates. Alaska Republican Party Chair Carmela Warfield was also there with her husband. Most of the testimony was on more education funding, people saying we need taxes, and reinstating a pension. The below X thread has a summary of many of the comments. The weirdest one came from School Board member Kelly Lessens. She was in tears about cuts the board has had to make. She was holding a cup and a spoon, quoting from the Charles Dickens novel “Oliver Twist,” saying “please fill my cup.” 

Q is no longer with the Department of Revenue. He was one of the last Crooked Adam Crum acolytes. 

The dividend delusion is alive and well with many Republican gubernatorial candidates. First, Dave Bronson. 

And of course Bronson’s biggest cheerleader when he wan for mayor in 2021, Bernadette Wilson. They clearly had a big falling out. 

Republican gubernatorial candidate Matt Heilala picked up some noteworthy campaign co-chairs.  

Chewie is back with some good old accountability. You can’t make this stuff up. That AI glow up tho!

This Week’s Loose Unit 

This was an extremely loose week. Between Zack Fields with his “ICE Out” sign and the looseness from House Republicans on the supplemental budget, there were many deserving candidates. But one stood out. This week’s Loose Unit is Representative Dan Saddler.

After the drama on the House floor with the supplemental budget, Saddler went full Loose Unit. The House majority held a press conference after the floor session. Saddler walked in and tried to secretly record them. A staffer caught that Loose Unit recording! There’s nothing wrong recording press conferences. Most reporters do. But Saddler was clearly there as an agent of the Republican House minority. Normally, they would send one of their press people in to do that. But Saddler came in fully loose. 

Saddler was furiously taking notes and acting vert loose. At one point an annoyed Speaker Edgmon called him out. He asked Saddler if he and the Republicans were given a preview of the revenue forecast. Saddler, nervously, said he was just there as an observer. Then Edgmon was like that’s all you need to hear folks! It was funny as hell and maximum loose! 

If you have a nomination for this week’s Loose Unit, or if you have any political news, stories or gossip (or any old pics of politicians or public officials) please email me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com.