Happy International Women’s Day to all the ladies out there! The Iditarod is underway. Hilcorp’s annual Iditarod party on Friday (3/6/2026) night at 49th State was packed with politicos, including Senator Dan Sullivan (R – Alaska). The price of oil has skyrocketed since the war in Iran started, making many legislators feel some relief in an election year. The Senate Finance Committee sent the $500 million supplemental budget to the Senate floor, which is set to debate and hear amendments tomorrow. House finance subcommittees wrapped up their work to agency budgets, adding another $43 million in spending. Representative Nick Begich (R – Alaska) is scheduled to give his annual address to the Legislature on Tuesday (3/10/2026). And an interesting poll on the crowded governor’s race.

If you have not seen the newest feature on the Landmine, make sure to check out “Juneau on the Loose: Juneau’s Unofficial Events Calendar.” If you know about or have an event happening in Juneau, like a reception or fundraiser or party, please send me the info (jeff@alaskalandmine.com) and I will get it added to the calendar. Thanks to the people who have sent events so far. There are six for the upcoming week.

A friendly message and reminder to all our readers. The Landmine is made possible by myself and a team of awesome Alaskans. I have been covering the legislative session in Juneau for the last seven years and am now here for my eighth session. We will be covering all the 2026 Alaska elections in-depth. If you enjoy the content we provide, please consider making a one time or recurring monthly donation. You can click here to donate. We have a system that makes it super easy. We would really appreciate it. And thanks to everyone who has been supportive. 

Senate Supplemental Bill

The following is an excerpt from a recent special edition of the Alaska Political Report. You can click here for more information about the Political Report. A subscription is $1,299/year per organization. Discounted pricing is available for non-profits and government entities. Our coverage of the budget starts with the governor’s proposed budget, and we track everything in detail through the entire process. If you have any questions or would like to subscribe, please email jeff@akpoliticalreport.com.

The Senate Finance Committee made a few changes to the supplemental budget passed to them by the House. The changes made bring the supplemental bill in line with Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s (R-AK) amended request released in mid-February; adjusting projections for Medicaid, fire suppression, and disaster relief. They also restored access to the Constitutional Budget Reserve (CBR) to fund the supplemental budget and included $30 million of headroom in case the Governor brings forward more supplemental needs before the end of session.

Based on the Dept. of Revenue’s fall revenue projections, the revised bill will draw $500 million from the CBR.

The bill is scheduled to be heard on the Senate floor on Monday. Assuming the Senate passes the three-quarter vote threshold for CBR access, the bill will return to the House for a concurrence vote. Even if the House concurs, they would still need 30 votes to access the CBR. They fell six votes short when they originally passed the bill. If they fail to concur, the bill will go to a conference committee.

Oil is on the Rise 

The recent outbreak of war in Iran has resulted in oil prices skyrocketing. ANS crude hit $81.72 per barrel on Thursday – up nearly $11 in a week, or 13.3%. And with oil futures trading at more than $100 per barrel, ANS crude will go up even more when prices are updated. 

But prices at this level are not enough to erase the FY2026 deficit facing the supplemental budget. To fully eliminate the projected FY2026 $500 million draw from the Constitutional Budget Reserve (CBR), oil would need to average over $105 per barrel for the remainder of the fiscal year. Even at higher prices, a sustained level at $105 or more until July 1 is unlikely. Meaning a three-quarter vote will still be required to pay for money that has already been spent in FY2026.

The Department of Revenue will be looking at the futures market this week to set their projections for the spring forecast, due on Friday (3/13/2026). But it’s hard to believe an adjustment much higher than the $64 per barrel number in the fall forecast will happen. If the forecast increases to $70 per barrel, for example, that would be an increase in approximately $210 million in projected revenues.  

While the spring update will certainly be an increase from the fall projections, it’s unlikely to be the bail out some are hoping for. Expect the adjustment to be in the hundreds of millions, not in the billions.

The current budget barely balances with a $1,000 Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD). A couple hundred million dollars will provide much needed breathing room for deliberations on the FY2027 budget, but the fiscal problems plaguing the state are unlikely to be solved by high oil prices.

Other Happenings 

The House finance subcommittees wrapped up their work on agency budgets. The finance subcommittees will present their reports to the full finance committee this week. The finance committee will then adopt a committee substitute for the operating budget and hear amendments. The budget will then go to the full House, where they will hear more amendments and debate the budget. Their plan is to pass it and send it to the Senate by the end of March.

This is rather interesting. 

Representative Jamie Allard (R – Eagle River) is in Whitehorse, Yukon for the Arctic Winter Games. 

This is not that far from the truth. 

Senator Lisa Murkowski (R – Alaska) tho…

This Week’s Loose Unit 

This week’s designee is a slam dunk. This week’s Loose Unit is the Alaska Native Justice Center and Cook Inlet Tribal Council. 

First, some background.

In 2016, Ian Millard brutally murdered his mother and brother. He was 12 years old. He was locked up at McLaughlin Youth Center until he was 19. He was released in 2022. 

After he was released, the Alaska Native Justice Center helped him get on his feet. They posted a write-up on their website titled “A Stepping Stone to Success.” They wrote about how they helped him find a housing, get his driver’s license, and helped pay for school. They even helped him buy a cutting board.

Cook Inlet Tribal Council also shared his story on their website. They both left out one small detail: that he brutally murdered his mother and brother. 

But their help did not have the desired effect.

A year after being released, Millard killed again. He was arrested two days ago for the murder of an 18-year-old girl in 2023.

That alone is super loose. But it gets even looser. Earlier this evening I posted this story on the Alaska Landmine X and Facebook accounts. 

Not long after, the story was taken down from both websites! But don’t worry, the internet is forever. You can read them both here:

Alaska Native Justice Center post

Cook Inlet Tribal Council post

If you have a nomination for this week’s Loose Unit, or if you have any political news, stories or gossip (or any old pics of politicians or public officials) please email me at jeff@alaskalandmine.com.